Showing posts with label Pound. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pound. Show all posts

Friday, 9 June 2017

DisMAY. Hung, drawn and slaughtered

"The voters have cast their ballots in this way, whether or not you or I have British electoral fatigue (From the Scottish referendum through to the Brexit vote, through to this election), it is the will of the people. And by implying that the people are wrong, shows a certain ignorance in itself."




To market to market to buy a fat pig British politics and their little colourful rosettes. It looks like a primary school athletics day event, first, second and third place for the under 8, 60 metre dash, well done you! There are actually rules about these rosettes, I couldn't believe it. The only people permitted to wear political rosettes are the candidates and their polling agents (observers?). Ordinary voters cannot do that, which is darn hilarious. What would one of my favourite childhood "comic" book characters, Captain Archibald Haddock (from the Tintin series) have to say about this, the fact that the UK election (which was a certainty for the conservatives at the polls), now looks like another hung parliament? According to Wikipedia (and distant memories), he (Captain Haddock) may start something like this:

    Ten Thousand Thundering Typhoons! Billions of blue blistering boiled and barbecued barnacles! Great flat-footed grizzly bear! Flaming Jack-in-the-Box! You bashi-bazouks, freshwater swabs, miserable slugs, blundering bazookas, you sea gherkins!"


OK, that is plain mean and downright insensitive. I apologise. The voters have cast their ballots in this way, whether or not you or I have British electoral fatigue (From the Scottish referendum through to the Brexit vote, through to this election), it is the will of the people. And by implying that the people are wrong, shows a certain ignorance in itself. My mother always said, don't speak politics and religion with first timers at dinner events. It is not physics or math (politics that is) and whether or not (to quote Haddock), you think that the candidates are a "Dictatorial duck-billed diplodocus", the die is cast. To quote another politician, Julius Caesar .... who would have used the Latin "Alea iacta est".

Most of us reading this newsletter do not live there, or live where Trump is YUGE, we live here and have our fair share and larger slice of political "issues". Or in the world where Dr. Seuss and the internet collide, "We live here and there and everywhere." It does impact on us and our investing lives, it casts uncertainty around the Brexit process, it casts doubts on the ability for a proper negotiation of the British people to muscle any sort of pressure in looking for a favourable outcome for their home base. It actually falls onto the laps of the European people and their strengths in the negotiating process. Sigh.

As to what happens next, your guess is as good as mine, the WSJ leads with U.K. Voters Deliver Stunning Setback to Theresa May's Conservatives. "Theresa DisMay" is being thrown around. Some are suggesting that there may be another election in the second half of this year. All this is creating an environment of uncertainty. Hung, drawn and slaughtered. Amazingly, the Scottish National Party and UKIP have been slaughtered too. Oh dear, for them that is!

The ramifications for investors suggest that a weaker Pound and more uncertainty means lower asset prices. It has to. And that is not good for our investments in the UK. Less confidence in the UK economy means less spend, which leads to a lower growth trajectory. We managed to find a long term graph of the Pound to the US Dollar. You be the judge of whether the Great British Pound should just be the Pound or the Dollar should be called the Great Dollar:






Quick look at stocks and their performance locally yesterday, after this "stunning" outcome. Locally, the JSE slid around one-third of a percent by the close, the currency also slipped which lent a hand to the resource stocks. There were new twelve month lows aplenty, it certainly looks iffy for SA Inc., Brait, Arcelor Mittal, MMI Holdings, Sun International, Pick n Pay, Tsogo Sun and Pioneer Foods, as well as EOH. Amongst the majors, only the big dual listed resource stocks made any progress, BHP Billiton, Anglo American, Glencore and Bidcorp (food is always in fashion) all in the up column. Sasol and Bidvest were much lower, for different reasons.




Across the oceans wide and vast, stocks ended an up and down session in the green, eyes turned to testimony and Q&A of the old FBI chief. No smoking gun = OK outcome for stocks. As such, the end of the session saw the Dow Jones up a few points, which is 0.04 percent (an intraday all time high earlier in the session), as was the broader market S&P 500 (up 0.03 percent by the close). The real story of the day however was another big all time high for the nerds of NASDAQ, up nearly four-tenths of a percent by the close. Big moves north from the likes of NVIDIA, over seven and one-quarter of a percent, Alibaba added 13 and one-quarter of a percent. Alibaba was the company that moved tech stocks higher as a result of a really bullish guidance, suggesting revenue growth of 45 to 49 percent. So there goes! All Chinese related stocks getting a big lift.




Linkfest, lap it up

Apple has now officially joined the ranks of companies creating TV shows, the idea is not original but they have some very big hitters in the show - How to watch the first episode of Apple's 'Shark Tank' for apps reality show. Look out Netflix, Amazon and HBO?

As Cullen points out, even if we had 1 000 years of historical financial market data we still would not be able to predict the future. There are broad long term trends that we can be fairly certain will happen, over the short term (less than 5 years) we have no idea - 1 000 Years Worth of Market Data.

Here is why you shouldn't buy a stock for its dividend yield, dividends are at the mercy of the business environment along with all other business metrics - Don't Be Fooled By High Dividend Yields. Part of the discussion looks at the huge change facing US retailers at the moment, which means it is only a matter of time before South African retailers face the same headwinds.

Absolutely incredible! There were 460 registered electric vehicles in the world in 2007. We found via the via, this .pdf download from the international energy agency - Global EV Outlook 2017. What is important is that in ten years, the number of electric vehicles as a percentage of globally registered new cars has gone from a few hundred to hundreds of thousands to perhaps a million by the end of this year. EVs are now 1.1 percent of all cars sold, and growing like gangbusters. Stay long Tesla for the next 1000 (binary for 8) years.






Home again, home again, jiggety-jog. Righto. Listen carefully here all peoples of the newsletter. Our database and website is moving to Amazon Web Services this weekend. As such, there will be limited accessibility in parts, hopefully a MUCH faster experience. Feel free to email us if there are any queries that you have!



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Tuesday, 1 November 2016

Amgen, it's Curable


"Humans are great inventors, they are also great inhibitors, humans that is. If you do not make these therapies, or incentivise people to search for these therapies, then you are unlikely to ever get them made. There are those motivated by science and invention, there are those who are motivated by profits, there are those who are motivated by believing that societies best needs to be taken into consideration"




To market to market to buy a fat pig The Rand caught a serious bid yesterday, mostly as a result of political meddling coming undone at the edges. It all looks rather amateur, even to the untrained eye. Surely in a country where graft impacts on poor people, you have better things to do than read reams about pension law and early retirement? We (and by we, I mean South Africa) also recorded a trade surplus in September, economists had expected a deficit, that may have seen the Rand catch a bid too. Perhaps these are the green shoots that the minister of finance is talking about, greater exports. He will put on a brave face, and perhaps the ratings agencies will be at bay for another 6 or so months. Meddling. The less politicians do, the better. Oh, and does Shaun Abrahams look more like Gru from Despicable Me or Chester Messing, the puppet fellow?

Democracy trumps central planning, each and every time. Letting individuals carry on and doing what they do in an orderly fashion, keeping to a set of guidelines is something humans do. Even in North Korea there is a flourishing informal market (I call it real market, where real people set real prices for real goods, some people call it a black market) that sells all sorts of electronics. This segment of the market accounts for nearly 30 percent of their entire economy according to some estimates. The more freedoms people have, the more they want, it is a natural thing.

Session end, stocks locally had slipped 0.41 percent overall, some sharp moves in specific sectors though masked what looked like a mild day at face value. Local ZA inc. stocks, banks, financials and retailers caught a serious bid, FirstRand rallied 4.82 percent, RMBH was up 4.42 percent, whilst Shoprite (up 4.19 percent) moved northwards on news related to the retirement of their chief and a trading update. Perhaps this clears the way for the younger fellows at Steinhoff and Shoprite to commit to the master plan, a tie up of epic proportions. Emerging markets, established markets, good quality, good price. A truly global force to be reckoned with.

On the other side of the table, deep in the red, were the likes of AB InBev (secondary listing in Jozi, Mexico, and an ADR in New York) and Richemont, big Rand hedge businesses that reflect an offshore price (Listed in Brussels and Zurich respectively) in local units. i.e. part of the reason why some Rand share prices have performed poorly since the Brexit vote is as a direct result of the Pound having been rubbished. It has been just over four months since the Brexit vote. And in that time, the Pound has weakened by nearly 24 percent to the Rand.

So, for ease of math, a 10 Pound share price would now equal 164.84 Rand, whereas the day before Brexit (23 June this year), the same 10 Pound share price would have been 212.04 Rand. And added to that, the same ten Pound share price now attracts a market discount, as a result of the economic uncertainties that face the United Kingdom who would now face more trade barriers. Potentially. These are unknowns. So that 10 Pound share price would now be 8 Pounds, on the same earnings, a lower valuation. What we have learnt overnight is that the Bank of England chief, the dashing Mark Carney, will stay on until 2019. That is a bit of a relief and he will now stay on and bring some stability. Or so it seems.

So, back to that comparison of the 10 Pound share price pre-Brexit to a 8 Pound post Brexit and heightened uncertainty scenario. 8 Pounds at the current level equals 131.84 Rand. What we are dealing with, in terms of our UK exposure is a drop in value in Pound terms, exacerbated by the weakening Pound to all other currencies. What I think is likely to happen is that recent good news (i.e. not so bad news) is likely to be replaced by inflationary concerns and growth doldrums.

For the time being the Brexit doomsayers look wrong. Except for the Marmite thing. I suspect that whilst the outlook is patchy, I have asked the question several times, if you lived in an economy that was patchy (for example China or Russia), would you rather own a flat in Moscow, Shanghai or London? Which country do you think has the best property ownership laws protecting buyers? Just saying. We have no idea what the outcome of the Brexit referendum is likely to be, and for the time being, anything with a British flavour is being treated like boiled potatoes and Bubble and Squeak. Leftovers and not the main course.




Over the seas and far away (from us) in New York, New York and in a time zone that we still know well, there was some deal related activity that needed fleshing out. Whilst politicians have been nearly swallowing giant feet, markets and confidence have been patchy. Some stocks have continually caught a bid and have stayed at elevated levels, others have fallen flat on their backside. I guess that is why one tries to have as balanced a portfolio as possible. No two businesses are the same, inside of the collective that makes up the market the evolution is slow (like growing trees) and suddenly you turn around and the market composition isn't what you remember. That aside, and we have covered that multiple times in this never ending series of "newsletters", everyone refers to the market as one homogenous beast. Asking how the market is, is the same question as do you think it will rain today, or how do you expect the Proteas to do come Thursday in Perth?

Stocks on Wall Street lost a little ground, the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 0.1 percent, whilst the S&P 500 fell a fraction, down one quarter of a point (0.01 percent). The nerds of NASDAQ fell double that, down 0.02 percent. So hardly a day to speak much about, other than an oil and gas services deal between the GE division and Baker Hughes (the folks that release the weekly rig count). Amongst the winners on the day was Amazon, recovering lost ground post their (what I thought were good) results from last week. The opposite end of that spectrum was Alphabet, that stock lost ground. I think that both these businesses have great prospects.




Company corner

Amgen reported their numbers post the market close last Thursday evening. The stock was completely smoked. By Friday close of trade the stock had lost nearly ten percent, the worst single day loss for 14 years. Why? Was there anything fundamentally wrong with the numbers? At face value the results and guidance looked decent enough. There have been several concerns about their best sellers coming under volume and price threats. Let us be clear when we are talking about these pharma businesses that one is able to invest in, there is a very fine line between the company dedicating in the teens of revenues for research and development (looking for new life changing therapies), billions of Dollars and then the cost to broader society, who essentially pays after the therapy has passed all the regulatory requirements.

Humans are great inventors, they are also great inhibitors, humans that is. If you do not make these therapies, or incentivise people to search for these therapies, then you are unlikely to ever get them made. There are those motivated by science and invention, there are those who are motivated by profits, there are those who are motivated by believing that societies best needs to be taken into consideration. What history has shown us is that the market is normally the best leveler. If the therapies are too expensive, they won't sell. That said, what is a life worth? Much more than you will ever know, having lost my mother to a dreaded disease, I can see that there is no money in the world that could have saved her, eventually. Yet that didn't stop the family from trying whatever they could. See, a fine balance, and it is impossible to be objective.

OK, so let us have a look at the spread of therapies that Amgen have, Byron did a great job for all of us, he stuck it in a spreadsheet. It is a little too big to stick in here, follow the link to get the "larger image" - Sales update

Amgen has attracted a lot of heat after this reporting period, we view this as a huge opportunity to be able to acquire what is a well placed business, with a solid pipeline at a much cheaper price. The stock is trading near a year-to-date low. With a yield rapidly approaching three percent at current levels, a 14 historic multiple, we still feel major conviction on this business and by extension the share price. Buy.




Linkfest, lap it up

Elon Musk, revealed Tesla's latest product in their alternate energy product line - No One Saw Tesla's Solar Roof Coming. The roof tiles are designed to look exactly the same (or better) as current roof tiles. Part of the launch was the release of their Powerwall 2, which is a lot more powerful and more cost effective. What is the point of driving an electric car if the power used to power it is made from coal? The solution is to have a complete solar system at home.

Here is the video of the launch - Elon Musk unveils Solar Roof

To be the best online retail store, Amazon invests huge amounts of money in their distribution centres. Costs of shipping is a big sucker of cash - Enjoying that Prime membership comes at a big cost to Amazon. That is a huge short fall, would you call the expense an investment in future customers?



Another great blog from A Wealth of Common sense. As investors, too much focus on price action leads us to make irrational investment decisions - The Frog-in-a-Pot Theory of Investing.

    "High prices attract buyers, low prices attract sellers."





Home again, home again, jiggety-jog. Stocks are higher here, a better Asia as a result of better Chinese PMI. Sigh. It is what it is. Facebook numbers tomorrow evening, that is fun and exciting!



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Tuesday, 4 October 2016

Brexit Pounds ALSI 40


"So which stocks here are dual listed in London? Stocks that have primary listings in the UK and a secondary listing here. And then also, which companies do a fair amount of business in the UK? For the purposes of this exercise, let us look at the majors only, the stocks inside of the ALSI 40."




To market to market to buy a fat pig There wasn't much on the go here locally yesterday, not much by way of company releases and not too much going on around the globe. A settling of the nerves somewhat after the markets were jolted by Deutsche Bank and their string of woes last week. I bumped into Kevin Hedderwick and Karen Short at the JSE at lunchtime yesterday, they looked pleased with themselves and I wished them well. I couldn't get too much out of it other than a well done and a how are you. Talking over a two year period led to the listed business taking a nearly even stake in the entrepreneurial business. Established at that, the catering business By Word of Mouth has been around since 1993. And good for them, a half a life's work being cashed in at some level.

It certainly doesn't mean that Karen and By Word of Mouth are going to sit on their hands, this is the next phase in the progression of the business. Famous Brands want to have By Word of Mouth stores in high end shopping centres. You can get all of your stuff pre-made and it isn't take out, in a sense it is a home cooked meal. Home cooked meals from quality manufacturers is in short supply. You can get it from your supermarket and food retailers like Woolworths, Spar, Pick n Pay as well as Checkers, they all have their offerings. There is however still a huge gap that exists for people to eat healthy, where time is still at a premium. Good work for all concerned.

The other news of the day, not on the local front, was the "used to be Great" British Pound sinking to levels not seen in 31 years, relative to the USD. Yowsers. Why? The new PM Theresa May wants to get cracking with extricating Britain from the EU. Pronto! In Italian that means "ready" and is used as a greeting when answering the phone, like we say howzit or sharp, or heita amongst many others, I know. Pronto in Spanish is translated to soon in English. This is the pronto that Theresa May is after. Someone tweeted over the weekend that after her prepared notes that she delivered, she promptly left as if she had some serious business to do. Which she does. Giving a date and drawing a line in the sand means you will get it done.

The FT (subscription only) reckons that she is walking into a trap - The UK prime minister announces she will trigger an exit from the EU before getting any guarantees. As the article suggests, time is against her. If they bumble through this and don't commit, they face an all out revolt, her in particular. What the long term implications are for the capital of finance in Europe, I am not too sure. The parting line is a little naughty, I thought " ... she has also significantly increased the chances that Brexit will cause severe damage to the British economy." I thought the people wanted to go it alone? Isn't she doing what people want? Herewith a five year graph of the performance of the Pound relative to the US Dollar, thanks Bloomberg:



Eish, so now what? The reality is starting to sink in. Some of the attraction of being dual listed there and here are not exactly the same as they were a while back. Check out this ZAR to the GBP groom over five years, the current levels that we are at now were last breached at the beginning of 2014. All things being equal, the dual listed stocks in London have performed only as well as they have, i.e. the currency impact has been neutralised. YTD the Pound is 23 percent weaker to the ZAR. True story.



So which stocks here are dual listed in London? Stocks that have primary listings in the UK and a secondary listing here. And then also, which companies do a fair amount of business in the UK. For the purposes of this exercise, let us look at the majors only, the stocks inside of the ALSI 40. They are British American Tobacco, Glencore, BHP Billiton, Anglo American, Old Mutual, South32, Mediclinic, Mondi Plc, Hammerson (new secondary listing), Intu plc and Investec plc. Brait are planning a listing there at some stage, they are looking at March next year. Steinhoff has a business in the UK. Remgro have a big stake in Mediclinic who are listed there. Bidcorp have a business in the UK. Discovery has a business in the UK. Reinet have a big stake in BATS. Add those all up and you get to nearly 30 percent. We have a real exposure to the woes of the Great British Pound.

Stocks in Jozi closed much lower, down just over half a percent on the day. Off the best levels sadly, the stronger Rand dragged us lower. Industrials sank nearly a percent, banks were flat, financials sank around four-tenths of a percent. Resources sank one-quarter of a percent. Hey! Joburg turns 130 years old today. True story. Access to capital for mining was needed immediately and luckily the first hardy and tough prospectors needed the vehicle. So whilst Joburg has turned 130 today, the JSE itself traces its roots back to November 1887. There were of course people who lived here before, no formal dwellings were established. The surrounds are not exactly favourable for human habitation for agrarian purposes. i.e. farming commercially and subsistence farming. There is no water source nearby. What is more important is that 14 months after Jozi was "founded" capital markets started here. The oldest listed company here in Jozi? DRD Gold, which was incorporated into the JSE in Feb 1895. Happy birthday Joburg!

Over the seas and far away, stocks in New York, New York ended the session lower, off the worst levels though. The Dow ended off three-tenths of a percent, the S&P 500 closed off one-third of a percent and the nerds of NASDAQ lost just over one-fifth of a percent. Energy stocks were flat on the session, utilities were much lower on the session, nearly down one percent. Twitter caught a bid again, up 4 percent on the day. The stock is now up 50 percent in 6 months. Yes. Year to date the stock is up 3.7 percent. Over the last 12 months the stock is down nearly 9 percent. Since listing the stock is down 42 percent, that is November 15 2013. Disney is now rumoured to be looking at Netflix. That makes a little more sense than Twitter. Netflix was up over four percent on the day. Tesla also caught a bid, their sales numbers looked far better than Mr. Market thought. Musk will deliver, he has that feel and smell about him.




Linkfest, lap it up

You must have heard this by now - Facebook launches Marketplace, a friendlier Craigslist. Who loses? Would you be more likely to buy used goods from people you know, or do you prefer not to buy from people you know?

Due to Amazons fast shipping times and large range of products, people like to shop on the site. The more times that Amazon offers a superior service, the more likely a customer is to return to the site until online shopping and amazon.com are synonyms with each other - More Than 50% of Shoppers Turn First to Amazon in Product Search

This comes back to the whole debate of net neutrality of the internet. I think this is a great idea from T Mobile. Have free internet but pay if you want an improved speed or video quality, this sounds like a great way of levelling the playing field for people to have access to the unlimited knowledge of the internet - T-Mobile's plan to charge users for higher quality video seems to be working

Having spent a large chunk of my day yesterday traveling, the thought of self driving cars is becoming more and more attractive. Two reasons, the first is from a safely perspective. Self driving cars won't overtake on a blind rise and a second is convenience, sleeping instead of driving sounds great - The road ahead




Home again, home again, jiggety-jog. The FTSE has hit 7000 points for the first time in 16 months. Stocks locally have caught a bid here, which is a bit of a relief, going has been tough!




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Friday, 8 July 2016

Getting a Pounding


"For Brait on the other hand, the market is expecting the British shake up to hurt the growth from New Look and Iceland Foods. With a compounding factor being the weak Pound, which means when those earnings are translated into Euro's there are less of them."




To market to market to buy a fat pig BOOM! WALLOP! It was ugly on our local market yesterday, the TOP 40 finishing down 1.8% being lead by stocks with exposure to Britain. It would seem that the market forgot about the Brexit vote last week and this week (after a long weekend in parts of the world) realised that there may be a real impact on asset prices as politicians wrestle with how to "Brexit". There is no real road map for a nation to leave, so this process will not be quick and will probably include a couple missteps along the way. The current tally is 7 property funds who have closed their doors to withdrawals, I'm sure that this is bringing back 2008 flashes for many.

Two of our more widely held stocks who currently have different fortunes are Brait and Mediclinic. Both have significant operations in Britain but Brait is down 10% over the last 2 days and Mediclinic is up around 2%. Why the differing fortunes if they both have British operations? The Pound has acted as a buffer for Mediclinic, being listed on the London Stock Exchange means that all their offshore operations (in this case Switzerland, South African & UAE) have their profits converted to Pounds. Weaker pound means more profits for Mediclinic when those offshore earnings are brought home. For Brait on the other hand, the market is expecting the British shake up to hurt the growth from New Look and Iceland Foods. With a compounding factor being the weak Pound, which means when those earnings are translated into Euro's there are less of them.

Having a weak Pound is not all bad though, Online holiday queries spike after Brexit vote. Having a weaker currency means that things get cheaper for tourists and in particular tourists looking for luxury products (Now is the time for tourists to grab bargains on UK luxury brands like Burberry). Why not, holiday and shopping all with a 15% discount. Talking of a weaker currency, where is the Barmy Army now after singing 23 Rand to the Pound, at the Wanders stadium last year? As I write it is 18 odd Rand to the Pound.






As you can see above, The US markets started their trading day with red on the scorecard but then did an about turn thanks to some better than expected manufacturing data and the release of minutes from the last FED meeting. The minutes indicated that the FED is cautious to raise rates due to the last jobs number. Do you remember what the figure was for May? The economy only added 38 000 jobs, which was a HUGE miss on, estimates and what a healthy looking job market resembles. What all of that means though is that interest rate hikes for this year have been put on the back burner. Well at least until June's jobs number comes out this Friday. There will be some revisions to the May number which might be material and we will get a look to see if the May number was a once off or not. I have seen reports saying that the data out Friday is this years most important data point, but I remember reading the same thing about the previous number just before reporting day. Make no mistake, the data out Friday will move markets but after a bit of volatility attention will move to the next 'biggest data point for the year'.




Company corner

One stock that divides people is Tesla, mostly because either you think the company is worth holding or you think it is vastly over valued and you should short it with all you have. They have been getting a large amount of press recently because of their autopilot function in the car where one of the drivers died in May and then a number of other accidents have surfaced in the media since then (none resulting in a death though). These two articles capture most of the aspects in the debate (Tesla's Autopilot Vexes Some Drivers, Even Its Fans and Tesla blasts Fortune reports about fatal crash of Model S on autopilot).

I think the media is blowing this out of proportion, something going wrong at a company that many people know and love sell newspapers I suppose. Byron made the point yesterday, imagine if there was a news article and company statement every time someone was killed in a Toyota? As Tesla points out, there has been one death in the car in over 130 million hours driven on autopilot, much much safer than normal cars. If the truck that turned in front of the Tesla, resulting in the death, had an autopilot mode the accident probably would have been avoided. Basically as the number of self driving cars increase, the safer the roads will become and the more data is collected to improve the current systems. Tesla's autopilot system is collecting data which will make it possible to have fully autonomous vehicles on the road. A win for humanity.




Linkfest, lap it up

If you are wondering why a Brexit will takes years to hammer out, have a look at the complex web of relationships in the area - QuickTake Q&A: How U.K. and Europe Might Relate After Breakup. How many voters understand this relationship? Also what outcome was envisaged by the out camp?



It is no surprise that robots are being built to take over very repetitive jobs. I'm sure that in developed markets where labour is more expensive you will in the not too distant future place an order on a computer and then have a robot in the back prepare your order and only have one person around to make sure the system functions - This robot-powered burger joint could put fast food workers out of a job




Home again, home again, jiggety-jog. Our market is off to a great start this morning, up over 1% being lead by resources. The Rand is also catching a bid this morning, stringing to the USD.



Sent to you by Sasha, Michael and Byron on behalf of team Vestact.

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