These Big Names need Vitality

To market to market to buy a fat pig. As expected Janet Yellen announced no change to the US interest rate last night. Inflation over the next 12-months is expected to get to the target of 2%, which signals we are still on for three small rate raises this year.

During the Fed's 105-year history, Yellen is the first woman to lead the organisation. She was at the Fed for 14-years, four of which was as the Chair, where under her watch the US unemployment rate dropped from 6.7% to the current 4.1%. Many factors are at play when unemployment drops; business friendly interest rates are a key cog. Running the economy 'hot', which prolonged a low-interest rate environment has not been everyone's preferred path. It is the path Yellen and Bernanke chose, time will tell if it was the correct one.

Market Scorecard. US markets bounced back from three days of losses, with some very modest gains. The Dow was up 0.28%, the S&P 500 was up 0.05%, the Nasdaq was up 0.12%, and the All-share was down 0.07%. Capitec had another tough day out, dropping 13%, now trading at R800. It is now down 27% since the start of the year. Regardless if the allegations are true or not, the problem for shareholders is that the company was trading at comparative values of two or three times that of other South African banks. The more stretched your metrics, small hiccups can have a big impact on the share price. A problem for the company itself is that depositors are worried to use them now. Their amazing record of opening around 100 000 new accounts a month has probably come to an end, impacting future growth potential.

The only stock currently sitting at a 12-month high, is former JSE star, Mr Price. Since the start of November last year, the stock has surged 67%! South African's are feeling positive about South Africa again. A market commentator pointed out that yesterday Amazon became the most valuable listed company in the world. In this case he is not talking about the market cap but enterprise value (EV). To calculate EV, you subtract cash on hand from the market cap and then add on the debt. The logic is that if you bought 100% of the company, cash sitting in the company's bank account would be yours, effectively reducing what you paid for the company. In other words, the market is valuing Amazon's actual business excluding cash more than Apple's actual business excluding cash.

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Linkfest, lap it up

One thing, from Paul

US equity markets have had a terrific year. In the last 12 months, the S&P500 is up 23%. That is not normal. You have to be fully invested to benefit from such moves. That's one of the most important things that we do here at Vestact – keep our clients optimistic and in the market. Don't get distracted by the naysayers and all the noise!

Of course, not every single stock has delivered equal performance. A few tanked, most advanced, and then some did exceptionally well. Take a look at this graphical representation from Finviz. The size of the block is correlated to market capitalisation, and the deeper the green the better the increase. Amazon stands out, with a 76.19% rise since February 2017. The biggest loser is General Electric, with a decline of 45.56% over the last calendar year.

Follow this link to check it all out for yourself: Finviz - Financial Visualizations

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Byron's Beats

Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett and Jamie Dimon. What a powerhouse team! On Tuesday they came out saying that they were exploring a joint venture which would try and fix the US healthcare system. Warren Buffett, in particular, has been very vocal about how expensive healthcare is in the US and how that expense creates a lag on the economy. When these guys speak, people listen. Healthcare stocks as a collective have dropped two days in a row since the announcement.

Preventative healthcare is all the rage these days. It makes sense. It is far cheaper to prevent a disease than to cure it. I may be biased here as a proud South African and Discovery shareholder but these guys should seriously contact Vitality and implement the incentive-based, preventative health insurance model.

Berkshire Hathaway, Amazon and JP Morgan have a million employees combined, who can immediately be put onto the Vitality system. It get's people exercising, eating correctly and constantly screened. That is how you bring down the cost of healthcare. They already have the data to prove it.

Someone please tell Adrian Gore that these guys need him!

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Bright's Banter

I'm a not here to discuss how amazing an investor Warren Buffett is. I think we all agree on that and his track record tells a story. All I wanted to do is share these amazing timelines by the Visual Capitalist on how he processes information; maybe we can learn a thing or two. Buffett is still one of the most studied individuals because people are genuinely interested in what sets him apart from all the other investors.

Inside Warren Buffett Brain Part 2

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

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Home again, home again, jiggety-jog. Capitec is up this morning, along with the broader market. It is 'Big Tech Thursday' this evening, where amongst others, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Alibaba (To have a successful tech company does the name need to start with an 'A'?) and Visa all report earnings. Stay tuned, we will give all the updates in the coming days.

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Berkshire Appleway

"They have obviously identified the company as ticking all the boxes. Owning companies is what they do. And that is why this is more important, whilst it represents a small investment for both parties, it is important at the fringes. Apple stock rose 3.71 percent, off the 52 week lows."

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To market to market to buy a fat pig A strong showing for the local equity markets, a much weaker Rand as a result of seemingly (or reported) more political interference. It has been claimed that the claims are baseless, so I guess we deal with the information that we have. Market participants are like highly charged bunnies on a caffeine and energy drink diet only, standing in front of two buttons engaging in a whack-a-mole amusement arcade flashback. And unlike the one choice and single pill that Neo has to choose from Morpheus in the Matrix, Mr. Market seems to react in a more haphazard manner. The collective is jittery at best, sell first and then ask questions much later.

With the Rand selling off, not all local stocks were sold, in fact if you have timed your entry into equity markets and only bought gold or platinum stocks since the beginning of the year, you think that this is easy. And fun. And that you must be good at it. As a collective, platinum stocks are up a whopping (nearly) 105 percent year to date. And gold stocks are up a more astonishing 112 percent. Tell me what you think the gold price is likely to be in five years time, or find someone who will give you detailed and reliable forecasts on an ongoing basis, and I will say that you have found the one, sticking to the Neo and Matrix theme. It is way too hard to own some segments of the markets with any semblance of reliability, and by that I mean in earnings and then by extension the share price.

Whilst prices go up like crazy, people will think of the stock as a "good one", when the share price goes down, it must be a "bad one". It really matters what the company does and what it is likely to do, and by that, it doesn't mean the share price. It means what the company does. And let me just say that I can't understand the allure of owning precious metals over other investment classes. There always will be for historic reasons many people that will seek to own either physical metals. After all, it is like people who only invest in property, that is something that you can see and feel. Equities come with horror stories (some real), patience and quality in earnings is what ultimately drives superior returns that are longer dated.

At the end of the session, once the dust had settled, stocks as a collective were up 1.57 percent, with a 4.37 percent gain in the broader resources market being the highlight. If you drilled further down, you would find that in the platinum sector all the action was happening, and in particular with Lonmin. After the deepest and perhaps most dilutive rights issue that I have ever seen at the end of last year, the company has worked hard to reduce costs, and although loss making (still), you can see through the mist.

The stock responded in a manner that you may not have expected, up a whopping 20 percent. That is fairly significant for some investors, not the least the Public Investment Corporation of South Africa who took 29.99 percent of the shares at the rights issue. At one pence. After the 100 for 1 consolidation the share price is trading at 195 pence last evening. From early December, in pounds and cents (really just pence), the PIC have doubled their money by having followed their rights. Equally you could argue as a shareholder from before, they were absolutely trashed. 30 percent of a 553 million Pounds market cap business is better than two acorns (owed to them) from a oak tree near a bay. Again, not for us.

Vodacom had results too, this for their full year. It has been pretty much telegraphed to the market. Data on the rise, sharply at that, and continued pressures put on the pricing specifically. That is a very good thing for consumers everywhere. The company bemoaned the slow roll out of broadband infrastructure here in South Africa. That was in the direction of the people over at Telkom (SOC) methinks. We will take a more detailed look at the business over the coming days.

Barloworld also reported numbers that at face value looked just OK to me, the market marked the stock down heavily, down over six and a half percent by the close of business. I suppose the company is stuck in a difficult spot, construction and mining. In Russia, South Africa and the Iberian peninsula. Good company, tough spot of the economy. If I had to pick one in the sector, perhaps Imperial is "better". We still prefer and hold loads of Bidvest shares, in a couple of weeks they are about to start the process of forcing us to choose between the two businesses. We will advise then.

Over the seas and far away in New York, New York, stocks were bucking the trend, up sharply. The Dow Jones Industrial average up a percent exactly, the broader market S&P 500 was up a fragment away from a percent. The nerds of NASDAQ added nearly a percent and one-quarter of a percent. The one story attracting all of the attention was a simple filing by Berkshire, and you can look through the table for interests sake -> Information table for form 13F. According to Investopedia, "The SEC form 13F is a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), also known as the Information Required of Institutional Investment Managers Form. It is a quarterly filing required of institutional investment managers with over $100 million in qualifying assets."

So why the buzz? I suppose it is always interesting to note what Berkshire is or isn't owning, i.e. what they are selling and what they are buying. Berkshire owns shares. Berkshire sells shares and doesn't own them any more. Own being the operative word. The company is in the business of stock (and company) ownership. And therefore doesn't trade. The name that appears for the first time on this 13F form is Apple. And that is what all the buzz was.

For the first time, the investment managers Todd Combs or Ted Weschler are owning the stock. Todd or Ted. Cast your mind back to the Peter Rabbit books, Mr. Todd was the sneaky fox who tries to eat bunnies and all sorts of other characters from the Beatrix Potter books. In this case, Todd is an investment manager who is the future of Berkshire investments, along with Ted. They have obviously identified the company as ticking all the boxes. Owning companies is what they do. And that is why this is more important, whilst it represents a small investment for both parties, it is important at the fringes. Apple stock rose 3.71 percent, off the 52 week lows. Much was made of Warren Buffett now being associated with Apple stock. I only have a single question, how does Buffett's old friend Bill Gates feel about this? As Michael said, I don't think Gates really cares, maybe 20 years ago.

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Linkfest, lap it up

Infrastructure is one component needed to keep Africa growing and help uplift people out of poverty - Africa needs to trade with itself - here's how. One of the stats show "Africa had the lowest level of intra-regional trade, at just 18%.", there is much room for improvement.

I can't imagine a country functioning in the modern economy where more than 75% of the population doesn't have electricity.

How is it that only 27% of South Africans have access to the internet? MTN accounts for around 19% of Nigeria's connection numbers.

If books brought you fond memories why not wear the scent, to make you happy and to try lure a partner who is also a bookworm - The sweet, sexy smell of old books is a perfume fad

Does this graph indicate that life is all downhill until you have a midlife crisis and then appreciate life more after that? The only investment implications that I can think of is that healthcare spend for older people is still a great area to be in, to be happy in old age you normally need to be healthy as well - This chart shows the age when most people feel the least happy.

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Home again, home again, jiggety-jog. Markets are green again today, Lonmin is up another 2%. The Rand topped out at R/$15.70 but has recovered a bit to the R/$15.50s, expect some Dollar volatility when the US CPI data comes out this afternoon. If inflation is higher than expected there will be an argument to be made that the FED is closer to an interest rate hike.

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Profits. Not hidden in the jungle.

"This commitment to customer service is what distinguishes Amazon.com from their competitors. I think that the company is fairly priced considering its huge growth rates which are likely to continue for years to come."

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The latest blunders video has hit the screens last week, what haven't you watched it yet? Follow the link Blunders - Episode 12, enjoy all the latest in the world of blunders. Subscribe to the Blunder Alert! and never miss a weekly update, you will get the email delivered to your inbox at the end of the week.

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To market to market to buy a fat pig Ooof. That looked bad at face value, stocks as a collective were thumped yesterday. Why? Worries about global growth. Yes, I can hear the collective sigh. The cause, Chinese PMI numbers that were lower again, possibly lower than the expectations that I didn't quite know. Yesterday there was still a lot of digesting of the weekend Berkshire AGM. Some snarky remarks, comparing the meeting to Hogwarts and the rest of the investment world being full of muggles. Michael tells me, and I struggled with this, that people spent good money on no doubt elevated air ticket prices, elevated hotel prices, elevated food prices, only to sit in an arena slightly across the road from the main event. Yes, you sat and watched a screen where you got to see Buffett and Munger, rather than see them in person.

Ummmmm ... If I were these two guys I might move the meeting to a larger location, charge high ticket prices, give the proceeds to charitable causes, that sort of thing. Why not? If these guys are the business equivalents of modern day Beyonce (and Jay-Z), Taylor Swift, Pharrell Williams and Co., yesteryears Sinatra, Hendrix (that's Jimi), or more likely for those two, Gene Austin, Harry Belafonte and perhaps the Fleetwood Mac, the Eagles crowd. Who knows what those guys like! There was more than a little made in the broader media (that includes Twitter) of a question about Coca-Cola and obesity posed by a journalist to Warren Buffett (I think it was NY Times and CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin asking), which the Oracle of Omaha (sort of) dodged.

He had this to say: "I elect to get my 2,600 or 2,700 calories a day from things that make me feel good when I eat them. That's my sole test." And then he continued along the same lines: "I like fudge a lot. Peanut brittle. I am a very, very, very happy guy." I wonder how the sugar is evil crowd would counter this argument, after all the fellow is 85 and he seems in pretty good health. His mental health is about as sharp as ever. I am pretty sure all of us want to be like that when we get to that age. For sure! Without a single doubt. Charlie Munger weighed in and suggested that perhaps the criticism was immature and one sided. I guess he has a point, there certainly seems to be momentum on the side of the quick shift to healthier lifestyles, notice the food changes in Woolies? All that "carb clever" food, from pizzas to granola that contains little old style processed food.

There were also questions raised about their ability to outperform now, as a result of size and scale. I am guessing for those of us who have watched their progress over the decades, that might have always been the case. Also, why did some say that the advice is always to find a low cost market tracker? Perhaps for the average retail investor who is not interested in owning single stocks, this is definitely the answer. Dollar cost averaging. If you are not going to own single stocks, then make sure that you find a cheaper alternative. I think Berkshire, as long as they maintain the legacy of Charlie and Warren, will be one of those American institutions. Yes. Smart people are drawn to attractive workplaces. Talent is retained at reputable and principled firms. Yes. Charlie and Warren may be gone in two decades time (perhaps not), the company is more likely to be a lot bigger that it is now.

Lastly, the two (Charlie and Warren) had choice words for Valeant Pharma., which was countered by Bill Ackman (obviously), he holds a big position in the stock. The two also sneered at hedge funds and their fee (fleecing) structures, I am not too sure that Bill Ackman came back from that one. That was intertwined with the index tracker thing. For the record, Buffett is smashing hedge funds on the bet that he took a while back. Hedge Fund fees and underperformance relative to the index makes you wonder if Hedge Funds shouldn't change their classification to High performance, high fees leveraged Funds.

Markets scoreboard quickly. Comments from Tim Cook in an interview with Jim Cramer saw Apple stock higher and looking even better against the rest of the market in the red last evening in New York, New York. The whole market fell sharply, stocks were off their worst if that makes anyone feel better. By the end of the session, the Dow Jones was off over three-quarters of a percent, the broader market S&P 500 sold off 0.87 percent, whilst the nerds of NASDAQ fell 1.13 percent. Energy and basic materials fell hard, lower prices as a result of the concerns over Chinese growth. Same old, same old as "they" say in the classics.

Quickly, listen to and read about the interview with Tim Cook done by Jim Cramer, the chattering classes of Twitter suggested that he sounded desperate. For me, I am not so sure that he needs to respond to Carl Icahn or anyone else, he works for the shareholders and is the custodian of their funds, being the man in charge. And if he needs to remind everyone all of the time that the middle class projections in China is set to grow from 50 million in 2010 to 500 million by 2020. Cook is right, the most important thing at the end of the day is that their customers really love their products. It is a little long (nearly 12 minutes), it is worth a watch.

Cramer always holds no punches and remember the short term nature of the beast. Loyalty rates and satisfaction rates have never been higher. Smartphone market penetration rates globally are in the 40's percent. Cook says that Apple will give products to people to enrich peoples lives, and Cramer talks about people going to have to pry that product (the iPhone) from his cold dead hands. Cook talks services, the App Store, Music and so on. China is the clincher though for me. Everything is going to be fine, OK? I believe Tim Cook, Howard Schultz (Starbucks CEO who was here recently, could still be here) and people like Jack Ma who make comments on the transition of the Chinese economy. Cook says that the long term thesis remains intact on China. Thanks.

Back to local here for a moment. It was pretty much a sell all emerging markets. China is finished and stuff. And we are impacted by that as much as every other emerging market. It was not very pretty. It is unfortunately again the nature of the beast. Deep and liquid markets are overtraded and supply us with the necessary liquidity in order to execute with ease. It comes with the territory, we just have to roll with it.

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Company Corner

As we chatted about last week, Amazon.com released their 1Q 2016 numbers and they smashed expectations pushing the stock back to record highs. Here are the numbers, Revenue up 28% to $29.1 billion, operating income up 331% to $1.1 billion and Net Income is $513 million from a loss of $57 million. The net income number is not of huge importance, as Amazon is spending most of the cash that comes through their front door on infrastructure development.

What is important is the growth rates being achieved and the customer loyalty being built as they grow. Sales in North America grew 27%, International sales grew 24% and Amazon Web Services (AWS) grew 64%. AWS is the big reason for the Amazon share price being up 58% over the last year, that segment of the business makes a healthy 64% operating margin unlike the 3.5% operating margin on the e-tail part of the business. The result is that North American net sales amount to $17 billion and have a profit of $588 million compared to AWS who has net sales of $2.5 billion but profits of $604 million.

On a customer service front, Prime same-day delivery grew by 11 metros in the US to now include 27 metros. This commitment to customer service is what distinguishes Amazon.com from their competitors. I think that the company is fairly priced considering its huge growth rates which are likely to continue for years to come. As a comparison Alibaba (who is the other global online seller) trades on a price to sales of 12 times, Amazon "only" trades on a price to sales of 3 times. The company is run by one of our generations great visionaries and operates in a sector that will become of greater importance to society, Buy Amazon.com.

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Linkfest, lap it up

Many Africans stay in one country and send money to their family in another country, the cost of doing this is eye popping - It still costs more to send money to Africa than anywhere else. The people that are paying these high fees are the people in society who can least afford to pay the costs, solving this price problem will help put some cash back into peoples pockets.

It looks like battles between government's and technology companies is starting to gain momentum - WhatsApp, Used by 100 Million Brazilians, Was Shut Down Nationwide by a Single Judge. This follows the FBI case with Apple earlier this year. You can understand why governments feel they have a right to the information. I don't think this will be the last battle.

I suppose the best way for AI to develop is through trial and error. Here is one way that the systems can learn and be tested to see how the programming stacked up to different scenarios - Elon Musk's $1 billion AI company launches a 'gym' where developers train their computers

An interesting stat out of Italy - Why Italian merry widows perk up after husbands die.

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Home again, home again, jiggety-jog. Cruz quits. And then unfortunately in the closing hug accidentally "punches" poor Mrs. Cruz in the face and then to add insult to injury, elbows her on the other cheek. Trump as the Republican nominee. The Teflon Man. Good luck America, it certainly seems that extremism of all kinds rose after a financial crisis, this is known through history. When economic hardships are experienced, you will just about believe anyone who says that they have the secrets to #winning. Wow. I would think that his debating skills are going to be called into question against an eloquent states person like Hillary Rodham Clinton. See poor Mrs. Cruz -> Failed Candidate Ted Cruz Elbows Wife in Face. Shem, when it doesn't go for you, it certainly doesn't.

BHP Billiton are in a whole heap of trouble. Nothing new, just the quantum of a fine that the Brazilians want to levy on the company. The stock was down nearly 10% in Australia. The stock is down around 5 % at the start here. 43.5 billion Dollars is, as Paul says, a large number. Stocks are mixed at the open here, some up and some down!

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Alpha-Bet on it

"Larry Page will be running Alphabet, Sergey Brin will be his partner, not much changes there. Sundar Pichai will run Google, he is highly regarded and got tweets of encouragement from the likes of Satya Nadella, the Microsoft CEO, Tim Cook, the Apple CEO and Google Chair, Eric Schmidt. He comes with a top pedigree, is only 43 years old, born in Chennai, I am just guessing that he is a huge MS Dhoni fan."

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To market to market to buy a fat pig. Last Friday we had the "jobs" number or the employment situation as the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington DC calls it. The BLS. The report was one of those Goldilocks numbers, not too hot, nor too cold, just perfect and the consensus has moved to a rate hike in September now. At least that is what the many talking heads (who should know) have suggested, people like Bill Gross, king of the bonds.

Well, you could argue that there are several kings of the bond world, Jeff Gundlach is another. As recently as the middle of July however, Gundlach said that he thought the Fed should not raise rates this year, a sentiment shared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) managing director Christine Lagarde. Janet Yellen and her team will do whatever they need to in order to meet their mandate, if this number confirms the launch of rates, then so be it, you personally should not worry about anything. After all was said and done, last evenings session was a cracker for the bulls, the Dow Jones up nearly 1.4 percent, the broader market S&P 500 up nearly one and one-third whilst the nerds of NASDAQ gained the least of the lot, ending up nearly one and one fifth of a percent.

Why the big jump in the "major gauges". Yes! I have always wanted to work that in, "major gauges", finally nailed it. The reason is pretty simple, the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett's business Berkshire Hathaway, is showing the strongest signs ever of faith in US manufacturing by offering 37.2 billion Dollars (including debt) to buy a business called Precision Castparts. The stock jumped nearly 20 percent on the news over the weekend, another elephant gun transaction (in the current environment I think another analogy is in order). The official release from the Berkshire website, you can download it here: Berkshire Hathaway Inc. to Acquire Precision Castparts Corp. Berkshire has an awful website. A really bad one, all you need to know is that it is functional.

The reasoning is simple, Buffett sees more aerospace growth, so does Elon Musk, who has dedicated his life to this. In the release: "For good reasons, it is the supplier of choice for the world's aerospace industry, one of the largest sources of American exports." Yes. It also services many other industries, chemicals, oil and gas, pollution control and power generation. The part that is interesting (several) is that this is the biggest ever deal for Berkshire, eclipsing the 26 billion Dollar railway deal, where the company had a part purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe back in 2009. First point, made, biggest deal ever.

Second point, the timing. The S&P 500 is up 87 percent over 5 years, as at close last evening which included the nearly 20 percent gain by Precision Castparts during the day, the stock is up 86 percent. So, with the premium, the stock has basically performed the same as the index. Which, if you needed reminding, is trading only around one and a half percent off the highs reached in the second half of July.

Third point and the most important of the lot, Berkshire is paying 22 times earnings for the company. Buffett obviously believes that this is a fair price for a business of this nature. Remember the Buffett wisdom: "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." Exactly that, don't feel afraid that you may be paying too much today for that business, when in five years time you "wish" that you had bought that company.

Buffett is paying nearly two and a half times book value for the company, a metric that deep value disciples use. Two and a half times sales. Before buying a company, ask yourself why you are getting such a discount, if that is the case. Is it a fair business or a wonderful business? I often see people say that a company is really great, I wish I could own it, it is however too expensive. And remember, from his mentor Benjamin Graham: "Price is what you pay, value is what you get." That is also a favourite of the Oracle of Omaha. Third point, do not be afraid to be paying up for a good quality business with better than even prospects.

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Company corner

There was an interesting announcement from Google last evening, after the market closed: Google Announces Plans for New Operating Structure. The holding company is Alphabet, the website is abc.xyz. That is pretty cool, and the design is clean, G is for Google. Larry Page will be running Alphabet, Sergey Brin will be his partner, not much changes there. Sundar Pichai will run Google, he is highly regarded and got tweets of encouragement from the likes of Satya Nadella, the Microsoft CEO, Tim Cook, the Apple CEO and Google Chair, Eric Schmidt. He comes with a top pedigree, is only 43 years old, born in Chennai, I am just guessing that he is a huge MS Dhoni fan.

He, being Sundar Pichai, told his bosses (according to this Bloomberg article: Google's Sundar Pichai Is the Most Powerful Man in Mobile) that they had to get into browser wars, with Chrome. And he was prominent in making Android a success. All in all, what this move is supposed to represent is that we may see segmented earnings (and research and development spend too), rather than all of the advertising businesses lumped into one. Whilst there was not too much being fleshed out as of yet, it does provide more clarity.

And more importantly, reveals what we know all along, that whilst the company is currently heavily reliant on one revenue stream, there is plenty of ambitions to grow the business into many others. Hence Alpha-bet. And whilst G stands for Google, there are 25 other letters in the English alphabet. Does this mean that Google can only ever have 26 businesses in total? Perhaps, I remember reading that at any one time there were 40 things on the go there! The stock popped 6 percent plus in after-hours trade to above 700 Dollars in GOOGL, near an all time high. Lovely to be shareholders.

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When are you going to get your Mediclinic shares? In two weeks time. Be patient. The N shares will trade for the balance of this week, the shares and cash will swap hands on the 24th of the month, to give you a blended price, remember you are getting the rights at a discount, 90 Rand a share. Relax, we haven't forgotten about you or your rights, we are on top of it.

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Linkfest, lap it up

This is an interesting change in the labour force dynamics. Do you think it is a problem that teens are not working as much as they used to? - Why American Teens Aren't Working Summer Jobs Anymore

Dont forget to consider inflation when looking at what your long term (and short term) returns have been. At the end of the day, real returns are what matter not nominal returns - How Inflation Affects Market Returns

Norway is one of the countries that have done the best out of high oil prices, so a drop in the price of oil is putting pressure on the economy - For Norway, Oil at $50 Is Worse Than the Global Financial Crisis. The headline has a negative connotation but note that unemployment is still below the 5% mark (most countries would love that!). Also note that they have nearly $900 billion in a sovereign wealth fund which they have built up from oil revenues. They made hay while the sun was shining. A point to make though is that it took two busts in the oil cycle for them to finally implement setting up the fund. While things were going well there was not political will to set up a fund for the bad times, until the bad times came around twice and the country struggled.

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Home again, home again, jiggety-jog. Markets are in catchup mode here today, across my screen there is a green-spread. Green bedspread, all stocks are up. Which is good news for all and sundry, as long as you are long. Across the rest of the globe stocks are marginally lower. Google to watch today, there seems to be some short term excitement about that. Love it!

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