Money with a dash of Funny: Mediclinic

Showing posts with label Mediclinic. Show all posts

Tuesday, 28 November 2017

Bezo$

To market to market to buy a fat pig. On Friday night, while eating supper my phone had a notification pop up saying that Jeff Bezos's NAV had just crossed $100 billion, the first time since 1999 when Bill Gates crossed that mark. Bill Gates is currently second on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, he would be worth well north of $100 billion if he hadn't given so much away already. Then the most famous investor of the last three generations, Warren Buffett is sitting in third. His NAV would also be higher than $100 billion if he hadn't given away so much.

Looking through the list, Jack Ma and Pony Ma (no relation) are in the global top-20 thanks to the 2017 performance of Alibaba and Tencent respectively. I was somewhat surprised to see Steve Ballmer, the ex-CEO of Microsoft sitting at number 23, with a NAV of $34 billion. Then someone I haven't noticed on the list before is Jorge Paulo Lemann, the founder of 3G Capital; the company behind AB InBev and Kraft Heinz. Lemann is number 27 with a NAV of $31 billion.

Having a look at the list I wondered where John D Rockefeller, the first dollar billionaire, would feature. Here is the first ever Forbes list from way back in 1918, where you can see their respective NAVs in 2017 Dollars. To get an idea of his wealth, have a look at the gap between Rockefeller and Frick, it is huge! On a side note, if you visit NYC, go visit Frick's house next to the park on E 70th Street. They have turned it into a museum and is well worth the money.

Just based on the inflation-adjusted number, he would land around number 40 on today's list. Seems a bit low considering that at his death, his NAV was around 1.5% of US GDP. His companies also controlled 90% of the oil and refining industry in the US. Most articles I read peg his wealth at around $300 billion, if he was around today. You probably know that Standard Oil was forced to break up into 34 companies, Visual Capitalist had a nice graph of where those companies ended up.

At his death, his NAV was around $1.4 billion. What I didn't know until today though was that he took tithing seriously and he looked to give away 10% of his earnings. His charitable giving totalled over $500 million while he was still alive; more than a third of his final NAV. Here is what encyclopedia.com had to say.

"Rockefeller, from his first employment as a clerk, sought to give away one-tenth of his earnings to charity. His donations grew with his fortune, and he also gave time and energy to philanthropic (charity-related) causes. At first he depended on the Baptist Church for advice. The Church wanted its own university, and in 1892, the University of Chicago opened. The university was Rockefeller's first major philanthropic creation, and he gave it over $80 million during his lifetime. Rockefeller chose New York City for his Rockefeller Institute of Medical Research (now Rockefeller University), chartered in 1901. In 1902 he established the General Education Board.

The total of Rockefeller's lifetime philanthropies has been estimated at about $550 million. Eventually the amounts involved became so huge (his fortune reached $900 million by 1913) that he developed a staff of specialists to help him."

Rockefeller made his money due to his tireless pursuit of efficiency and cost cutting, which in part resulted in the price of kerosene going from 58 cents to eight cents a gallon. A very good outcome for the consumer. Then through their giving, people like Rockefeller, Gates, Buffett, Bezos and Zuckerberg are a huge win for society. They create companies that make our lives better and then they use the wealth they have created to make society better.

Market Scorecard. Markets were very muted yesterday, when the day came to a close markets were mixed. The Dow was up 0.10%, the S&P 500 was down 0.04%, the Nasdaq was down 0.15% and the All-share was down 0.28%. Sitting at 12-month highs are Clicks and Dischem, interesting that the two major players in the pharmacy retail sectors are both soaring. In an environment where retail growth is muted, you would think for one company to do well it would be because they are stealing market share from the other. Another stock at 12-month highs was Standard Bank, which benefited from Moody's not downgrading us.

Linkfest, lap it up

One thing, from Paul

Amazon is a top holding in our Vestact US client portfolios. It has done incredibly well, hitting a new all time, intra-day high yesterday above $1,200 per share.

At that price level, founder and CEO Jeff Bezos is worth more than $100 billion, and is the richest person in the world, by quite a margin. Well done to him!

The reason for the surge appears to be that Amazon surpassed its expectations for sales on the Black Friday/Cyber Monday shopping weekend.

I was interested to see that the top selling items by value over the past weekend were the following: (1) Amazon Echo Dot, (2) Fire TV Stick with Alexa Voice Remote, (3) TP-Link Smart Plug, (4) Instant Pot DUO80 Pressure Cooker and (5) 23andMe DNA Test.

The top three are Amazon's own products. What's that last one? The 23andMe testers allows users to capture a saliva sample which gets sent in to a lab. After a few weeks the company issues a report showing the users' own ancestry, and their propensity to contract certain genetically indicated diseases.

More about those top sellers here.

Byron's Beats

Yesterday Mediclinic announced their designate CEO. Remember current CEO Danie Meintjies plans to step down next year after 8 years at the helm. Dr Ronnie van der Merwe will be the man in charge no later than August 2018 . He is an insider and currently the Chief Clinical Officer. I must say, his CV is impressive. See this from the announcement.

"Dr Van der Merwe obtained qualifications in Advanced Management (Harvard Business School, USA), a Fellowship in Anaesthesia (College of Anaesthesiologists, South Africa) where he was the recipient of the Jack Abelsohn Medal and a Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of Surgery (University of Stellenbosch, South Africa)."

He has been at Mediclinic since 1999 and has been Chief Clinical Officer since 2007. The business looks like it will be in good hands. Although those hands will certainly be very full.

Bright's Banter

Money laundering seems to be a big problem for Airbnb. The company has to navigate real-life versions of Walter White and Jesse Pinkman from Breaking Bad, as well as guys like Marty Byrde from Netflix's award winning series Ozark. If you have watched any of these series, you'll know that these guys are pretty bad ass.

People, just like the ones named above, are using Russian crime forums to scout, price, and share Airbnb listings made specifically for the purpose of cleaning cash from stolen/cloned credit cards. These scammers claim that this has been ongoing "since like foreverrrr". These scammers have managed to go around the authentication process in order to reach their goal.

These people are so good at scamming that they even work out the competitive rental for the area, manufacture fake reviews, online interactions etc. just to make it all look legit. Talk about going the extra mile! I'm sure you're gonna enjoy this read.

Inside Airbnb's Russian Money Laundering Problem

Vestact in the Media

Bright chats to Power FM about Sasol's BEE shares. If you own their BEE shares or are thinking of buying them, make sure you give it a listen - Bright from Vestact.

Business Day gives us a mention in the following article Tiger Brands eyes Africa expansion.

Home again, home again, jiggety-jog. Our market is off to a red start, probably in part due to the strong Rand. The only data out today of some note is the US consumer confidence number.

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Monday, 20 November 2017

Naspers 4000

To market to market to buy a fat pig. Friday was Naspers day. Thanks in part to Tencent rising 3% on Friday, Naspers was up over 4% at a stage and closed up 3.6%. What is amazing is that we still have 6-weeks left of the year and the stock is up 90%; it only needs another two days like Friday and it will have doubled for the year. Stocks that double in a year are normally your smaller caps, it is wild to think that a one trillion Rand company can double. The current market cap is R 1.7 trillion.

After the market closed on Friday, Naspers released a trading statement for their last 6-months:

"We expect core headline earnings per share to be between 62% (132 US cents) and 67% (142 US cents) higher than the comparable period's 212 US cents."

Based on the above Naspers will sit on a P/E around 40, which is still high but with all the underlying growth it seems reasonable. We prefer to value Naspers as an internet investment holding company, where their NAV is a more important determinant of what the share price should be. We roll this number out regularly, it has been a while since we quoted it though. Naspers' shareholding in Tencent is currently worth R2.3 trillion, which means Naspers market cap of R1.7 trillion is R600 billion lower. That is before we take into account their other listed investments of Mail.Ru worth R14 billion, Make My trip also worth R14bn and Delivery Hero worth R25 billion. We will see their detailed 6-month numbers next week Wednesday.

Market Scorecard. It was a divergent day for markets globally on Friday, US markets opened in the red and stayed there for the day where our market opened well in the green and just pushed higher. The Dow was down 0.43%, the S&P 500 was down 0.26%, the Nasdaq was down 0.15% and the All-share was up 0.97%. Discovery had a good day out breaking R160 a share for the first time and Woolies was up 3% recovering some of their recent loses.

Company corner

Byron's Beats

Last week Thursday we received interim results from Mediclinic. It was a very busy 6 months for the business as they tried to turn around the Middle Eastern division whilst dealing with tough conditions in South Africa and Switzerland. Here are the financial highlights for the 6 month period.

As you can see, it certainly isn't easy but if you strip out a few once offs as well as the write down from the Spire asset, things are slowly improving.

Unfortunately the share price has taken more heat. The market had high expectations for Mediclinic following an incredible growth patch and then the London listing. What we have seen here is a rerating for the company as these expectations have not been met.

The underlying fundamentals are still strong and the company is reinvesting a lot of capital into their hospitals to keep them world class.

There is also the pending Spire transaction which, as of this morning has been taken off the table. Maybe this is not such a bad thing. Running hospitals is an expensive business. It seems Mediclinic already have their hands full. The share had popped 6% on the news but has since pulled back.

We are monitoring this one closely, we are still happy to be patient and see what they can achieve over the next 6 months. Stay tuned.

Linkfest, lap it up

One thing, from Paul

This week on Blunders: Da Vinci for $450m sure, but Twombly for $50m?; Wors outfit gets eaten; Japanese apologise profusely for train that leaves 20 seconds early; and tough times for cops on the American rust belt - Blunders - Episode 79.

Michael's Musings

Africa's rising population will either be a huge opportunity or a burden. People represent potential customers and are a production input, generally speaking more people means more GDP in that particular area - Visualizing a Rapidly Changing Global Diet.

Home again, home again, jiggety-jog. Asian markets are a mixed bag this morning, Tencent is up around 2% though, which means a green Naspers and probably a green All-share. It is a big week for interest rates locally, tomorrow the MPC sits down for three days to decide what they are going to do with Repo and then on Friday evening we will find out what happens to our debt rating globally. I suspect the MPC will leave things as they are, we are still well within our inflation band and they will want to monitor the movement of the Rand over the next few months.

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Monday, 23 October 2017

Mediclinic Makes Inspired bid

To market to market to buy a fat pig. The first stock that comes to mind when people say, 'Blue Chip' is GE. On Friday, the stock wasn't behaving like a blue chip company at all. The company reported below-par 3Q numbers before the market open on Friday morning, causing the stock to open down 6%! If ever an earnings call saved the day, it was John Flannery's call with investors, where he spoke of restructuring, asset sales and cost-cutting. After starting the day down 6%, the stock finished the day higher by 0.97%; Blue chip companies are not meant to fluctuate by 7% in a day!

Market Scorecard. Japan's Nikkei has now had a record close for 15-days in a row, a new record for the index! Sticking with Japan, Shinzo Abe won a landslide victory over the weekend, where his party now has a supermajority in the Japanese parliament. On Friday, the Dow was up 0.71%, the S&P 500 was up 0.51%, the Nasdaq was up 0.36% and the All-share was up 0.09%.

Company corner

Byron's Beats

As you know, Mediclinic owns 29% of UK listed Healthcare Group Spire. Spire provides care services via 39 hospitals and 10 clinics in the UK. Much of that is focused on cancer, sports medicine, physiotherapy and rehabilitation. They have 17% market share of the UK private acute hospital market and 24.4% in private hip and knee replacements. You can check them out here in the About Us section of the website.

On Friday afternoon rumours started circling that Mediclinic were looking to make a bid for the rest of the business.

This morning Mediclinic came out with an official SENS confirming the offer.

Under the Proposal, Spire shareholders would receive 0.232 Mediclinic shares and 150 pence in cash for each Spire share. Based on the closing price of Mediclinic shares as at 17 October 2017, being the last business day prior to the Proposal being made, the Proposal valued each Spire share at 300 pence, representing a premium of:

1) 30% to the closing price of Spire shares on 17 October 2017(1); and
2) 31% to the volume weighted average closing price of Spire shares in the one month prior to and including 17 October 2017(2).

This values the business at around 1.2bn pounds, half cash, half shares. Although Spire are also sitting on around 436m pounds in debt. The company made 8.7 pence for the half year ending June 2017, if you annualise that, the price Mediclinic are offering is around 17 times earnings.

The Spire board have rejected the offer. Mediclinic have until 20 November 2017 to revise it or officially say they won't make another bid in the near future. We will keep a close eye on the proceedings.

Linkfest, lap it up

Michael's Musings

China's National Congress came to an end last week, with many leadership changes. I found this interesting article about the history of the congress and an informative three-minute video of what Xi Jinping has done over the last five years - The Real Message for the World in China's First Global Congress.It is paradoxical that China talks about free global trade but the country itself is still very closed to outside businesses.

Sticking with China and foreign companies, Tesla looks set to open up a factory in China without needing a local partner - Tesla Strikes Deal With Shanghai to Build Factory in China

One of the advantages of having a diverse society is the increased choices when it comes to food - American Soft Power

You will find more statistics at Statista

Bright's Banter

The most common question that we have been getting from clients before the recent rally was the following:

How can you invest in company A, B, C, etc. if you knew Brexit was going to happen and share prices would go down?

I can't remember where I got this, but I will use it as an example to explain how we cannot know the future but how you can prepare for it. What we can do to take advantage of low share prices.

The most conservative companies in South Africa are life insurance companies, Discovery and the likes. How can these businesses insure peoples lives when they know we're all going to die? How do they do it?

1. The key is knowing the risk involved. They know we're all going to die, it doesn't come as a surprise like "oh we had someone just die".

2. There are risks they can analyse; we have to do medical check-ups every so often to update their risk profiles for us.

3. There are risks they can mostly diversify away; they have a diverse client base. They do not only insure people in the Cape Flats, or only Skydivers, or only Smokers.

4. They are well paid to take the risk. The insurers get to sit on all your premiums, investing them, until you do claim one day. If you reach retirement and decide there is no longer a need for expensive life insurance and cancel the policy, then those premiums are pure profit.

The point here is that if you understand risk and you are aware of it. You can price the asset right and you can get a bargain.

Howard Marks says:

"Most things are governed by cycles. Yet people believe that trends will go on in one direction repeatedly into perpetuity. That trees will grow to the sky. That things that are going down today and are worth less today will go to zero.

These are the times when biggest errors are committed by investors. People get more excited as share prices rise and they want to buy more. The same people get more depressed as share prices fall and they want to sell them. This is the opposite of what you should do."

Here at Vestact, we see these market gyrations as an opportunity to buy more of the same quality businesses that we liked before. The only difference now is that they are cheaper.

Home again, home again, jiggety-jog. Our market is green this morning; Mediclinic opened up and then dropped, currently down 2%. Since around 8 AM the Rand has significantly weakened against all major currencies, currently sitting at $/R13.76

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Wednesday, 18 October 2017

Patient on Mediclinic

To market to market to buy a fat pig. The Dow broke through 23 000 points yesterday. Even though it is just a number, which has no real difference from 22 999 or 23 001, it is nice to have milestones. Having markers allows us to see where we have come from and the progress made; celebrate the small victories. I'm sure that market watchers get a shot of dopamine when we break through key levels, just like we get that high from likes on social media.

What is amazing to me is that in August 1987, the Dow crossed 2 000 points for the first time. If we keep at the same run-rate, the index should be above 230 000 in the next 30-years. The human mind struggles to compute the power of compounding. The question is, do you have the patience and the staying power to go along for the ride?

In November last year, the Dow broke through 19 000 for the first time. Since then it broke through 20 000 in January, 21 000 in March, 22 000 in August and now 23 000 in October. More interesting is that on its trip from 22 000 to 23 000, it was only down on six occasions. For more interesting facts about the market, follow Robert Hum on Twitter. Here is what he had to say about yesterday's close.

Market Scorecard. US markets continue to power ahead, our market unfortunately wasn't able to do the same. The Dow was up 0.18%, the S&P 500 was up 0.07%, the Nasdaq was down 0.01% and the All-share was down 0.48%. Our market was slightly in the red following the cabinet re-shuffle but from there onwards it just steadily drifted lower. We also saw weakness in the Rand immediately after the announcement but after a couple of hours, our currency was back at its previous trading levels.

Company corner

Bright's Banter

Private hospital provider Mediclinic International released their interim trading and operational update yesterday. This is the first trading update after the Thiqa regulations in Abu Dhabi on co-payments by citizens had been repealed by the King.

The group now has 75 hospitals and 29 clinics across its operations in Mzansi through the Mediclinic brand, Abu Dhabi and Dubai in the United Arab Emirates through the Al Noor/Mediclinic Middle East brand, and Switzerland through the Hirslanden brand. Mediclinic also has a 29.9% stake in Spire Healthcare Group in the United Kingdom.

Mediclinic said that on the group level, revenues were flat in constant currencies but up 9.5% in pounds to GBP1.4billion compared to £1.3bn in the prior year. Earnings before accounting items were up 5% to GBP231million compared to GBP 220million in the prior year. Earnings per share are expected to be 10% lower at around GBP0.115 compared to GBP0.128 in the prior year. As you can see, these aren't exactly blockbuster numbers. Shareholders pushed the share price down 3.2% yesterday extending the weekly losses to 7%.

Switzerland operations are still the powerhouse with 48% contribution to revenues with Mzansi operations coming second at 28% and Mediclinic Middle East contributing the remaining 24%.

The company reported that the Swiss operations were hit by the timing of the easter holidays and a subdued market during summer months. As a result revenues per bed day were flat. The Mzansi operations saw revenues increase by 4.1% to R7.6billion with a 7.7% increase in revenue per bed day in what management describes as a weak macro-economic environment that we are facing here at home.

The Middle East revenues were down by 4.7% and after once-off items they were pretty flat, but what caught my attention here was the huge improvement in Thiqa patient activity after the repeal of the co-payment requirement in Abu Dhabi. The quality of revenues should improve and the Dubai operations continue to do well.

Spire's earning were hit by Ian Peterson a surgeon nicknamed "the butcher" who apparently was jailed for performing unnecessary surgical procedures on patients. Spire made a provision of GBP27.6million before taking into account any potential recoveries from insurers, a potential cost of settlement relating to a civil litigation said the company.

It has been a very tough couple of years for Mediclinic and thats reflected on the share price which is down 27% over a one year period. We think the best times lie ahead for this business and long-term investors will be rewarded for their patience here, excuse the pun.

Michael's Musings

The graph below shows the power of a brand and nostalgia. Disney's huge lead is due to its appeal to multiple generations, from Frozen for the young to Star Wars for older folk - Licensed Merchandise Is a Billion-Dollar Business. As the article points out, Netflix is quickly building many hit shows and brands that will be used for merchandising further down the road.

You will find more statistics at Statista

It was only a matter of time until Uber became the king of New York city. July was the first time that more rides were done with Uber than with a yellow cab - New York City yellow cabs have taken a back seat to Uber. As a tourist to New York I found using Uber much easier, I didn't have to navigate the minefield of hailing a cab on a busy street and there was no pressure around, "How much should I tip the driver?". I even asked a New Yorker what the tipping guideline was, he just said "tip what you feel is fair"; which didn't help much.

Home again, home again, jiggety-jog. Our market is flat this morning, inline with most of the Asian markets. South Africa's CPI for September has just come in at 5.1%, higher than the 4.9% expected, edging back to the top of the SARB's range. The MPC next meet at the end of November, so there is time for one more CPI read before then, but as it stands I wouldn't be expecting a rate cut just in time for your December holiday.

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Thursday, 25 May 2017

Al Moer

"Mediclinic released their full year numbers during the course of yesterday. We all had a very solid look at these, this is the first year that the integration is all comparable. Remember that the company reversed into the Al Noor listing and then converted your shares of Mediclinic to Mediclinic international."

To market to market to buy a fat pig A mixed old day for the market here, financials enjoying a great day as the Rand continued to strengthen through the session, currently as we look this morning at 12.89 to the US Dollar. Resources stocks were sucking wind, down nearly a percent, as a result of the weakening Rand. Amplats, AngloGold Ashanti and South32 were the losers on the day, along with Mediclinic (see below) being the biggest loser on the day. In the winners column were the likes of Standard Bank, Barclays Africa, Nedbank and FirstRand, in that order. Inflation my comrades is abating somewhat.

Slowing CPI (5.3 percent), inflation data, led Mr. Market to believe that the consumer may look in better shape towards the end of the year, perhaps the Reserve Bank, who deliver their monetary policy announcement later today, will indicate there is a chance of a rate cut later this year. Check it out, via the Stats SA website - . There may well be a chance of a rate cut if the trajectory continues (So you're telling me there's a chance), a better chance of Lloyd ever marrying Mary - Dumb and Dumber 'There's a Chance'. Last Harry and Lloyd reference, I cannot help it, that movie had such a big impact on me, it appeals to my quirkiness.

Here below from the release is the falling inflation graphic, a marked downturn perhaps as a result of a lower demand environment and improving conditions from the drought. Food prices, fruit and veg and cereals all down, transport inline with the lower headline print, fish and meat up. All as expected!

Back to Mr. Market before we close out this piece. Sibanye lost just over one-third of their value, the stock started to trade "ex" the rights, those became tradable yesterday. Remember that the rights issue is 9 new shares for every 7 you have existing, at 11.28 Rand, there is a big dilutionary impact if you decide to not follow. Sibanye are going for a big deal in which they will acquire one of the biggest PGM assets in North America. Good for them, I wish them the best.

Pioneer foods and Rhodes Food Group touched 12 month lows, the stocks coming under pressure since their recent results. DRDGold too touching a 12 month low, the oldest listed ZA inc. stock has a market cap of 1.8 billion Rand after 122 years of being listed. You would hope for a bit better than that, right? It matters what company you buy relative to their prospects, you may well argue that people are always going to wear gold jewellery, perhaps the extraction method will be more difficult in time. As it has gotten. There goes.

Over the seas (from here of course), stocks in New York, New York rallied again, even if it was just modest. The Dow Jones Industrial average once again popped over the 21 thousand mark, up just over one-third of a percent by the end of the session. The broader market S&P 500 added one-quarter of a percent to close above 2400 points, whilst the nerds of NASDAQ added four-tenths of a percent to flirt with all time highs. All indices were that close to all time highs. Trump is out meeting the G7, the Pope, NATO and the like, a week ago the searches for Trump and impeachment were crushing the market.

There was the small matter of the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee from the May 2-3 meeting. Apparently "investors" are always looking for clues as to what the Fed are going to do next with interest rates. They watch the incoming data the same as all of us, they have to stick out their necks and make economic predictions, often when wrong or right, they are lost in the mists of time. And in three years time, does it really matter as an equity investor whether they were right or wrong? Does it? Not for me anyhow, some people live and die by the Fed and their announcements.

They (the Fed) are going to raise rates and reduce their balance sheet as economic conditions improve. In twenty/fifty years time when people study this period, they are unlikely to disagree with what the Fed did. All the evidence points to them having "done the right thing", notwithstanding all of the chattering classes and naysayers. If I had a buck for every time I heard the Fed was wrong, I would have been made "very right". So there. Watch and listen, please do not act on your long term retirement investments as to how the Fed sees the future. We may have shared this Michael Batnick graph (the irrelevant investor) before, it is worth the share again. Look at it, and then remind yourself that you own companies, not all these "events" that may or may not scuttle economic growth. Short response to this should be to not make investment decisions based on anything other than the company you are buying.

Company corner

Mediclinic released their full year numbers during the course of yesterday. We all had a very solid look at these, this is the first year that the integration is all comparable. Remember that the company reversed into the Al Noor listing and then converted your shares of Mediclinic to Mediclinic international. You will recall that as a shareholder from before, you were bought out at a ratio of around 0.625 new Mediclinic for the older ones that you had, at a conversation Rand price of above 200 Rand a share, regardless of what level you had owned them before.

In other words, if you bought, let us say 100 shares, you got 62 and a half (rounded up or down) and a price of 204 Rand for the new ones. Since that moment, 13 February, the price has on balance trended lower. In part, some of that is currency related, the Rand is 37 percent stronger to the Pound since the day Mediclinic "listed" (in the version as we know it) in London. It really is. Some of that is Brexit related and the subsequent recovery of the Rand. The timing has not been that good.

Equally, the results themselves have been tepid. Part UAE stresses on their business as a result of government finances and by extension healthcare benefits under pressure. Taking a bit more time than anticipated. As you can tell, the company has a growth multiple valuation, and if earnings cannot deliver that immediately, the stock will get a re-rating. That of course is very separate to a good business, which we definitely think that this is. Healthcare is a great medium for long term investors, hospitals even more so.

The amount of costs and mistakes that are likely to be reduced in hospitals as a result of improved and improving technology makes me feel that they are going to become more profitable and not less. Added to that will be that an ageing population will be able to have more procedures, and not fewer, as less invasive surgery continues to evolve. My dad (and I hope he doesn't trash me for this) had a small procedure on Friday that required local anaesthetic, yesterday he walked around 15km on a hike in the Cape Mountains. No probs.

The consolidated group reported revenue growth of 30 percent to 2.759 billion Pound Sterling, underlying EBITDA grew 17 percent to 501 million Pounds. Earnings per share were down 19 percent to 29.8 pence. The dividend declared for this period is 4.7 pence (7.9 pence for the whole year), not the biggest payer. In fact, for the full year it is below one percent. So you do not own this business because it pays you a wonderful dividend. You would own this business for their growth prospects. Underlying earnings per share clocked 29.8 pence, which is 19 percent lower than the prior period, which was 36.7 pence. Why? We shall deal with that in a second. Net Debt, as a result of all the recent deals, ramped up 9 percent to 1.669 billion Pounds.

Here are some interesting slides from the presentation that shows the separate business, which are as follows, in revenues: 48 percent Switzerland, 28 percent Southern Africa and 24 percent Middle East (UAE). From an underlying Ebitda perspective, the geographical breakdown is as follows: 53 percent Switzerland, 33 percent Southern Africa and 15 percent Middle East. Firstly, a five year performance of the Swiss business, Hirslanden:

This is a great business that definitely caters for the richest patients, possibly on earth. They (Hirslanden) have a one-third share of the private healthcare market in Switzerland. And then below, the South African business, in the same format from the results presentation.

The CEO says in the commentary: "We expect a gradual improvement in the Middle East platform as we progress through the 2018 financial year and beyond." That is part of the reason why we expect the outlook to brighten. To lend credence to our thesis above, we are in total agreement with CEO Danie Meintjes: "We continue to see growing demand for quality healthcare services which is underpinned by an ageing population, growing disease burden and technological innovation. This is why we place such an emphasis on our Patients First strategy and continue to invest in our facilities and people. With this focus and our leading positions in core markets, Mediclinic is well-positioned to deliver sustainable long-term growth."

When a share price does badly, ordinary investors think that there must be something wrong with the business. In this case, the share price was probably overvalued. I suspect that integration and regulatory issues (healthcare is made an emotive issue for politicians and ordinary citizens) have impacted their performance. I suspect that they will continue to do deals as they see fit. We continue to be patient, and will encourage investors to accumulate on weakness. This time next year the comparable numbers are likely to look more favourable.

Linkfest, lap it up

Flipkart is the Indian e-retailer that Naspers has a stake in and whose value has slipped from around $15 billion to around $11 billion - Flipkart and Rivigo are India's top "breakthrough" brands. Given the level of informal housing and high level of regulations, the Indian market is very difficult to operate in. If Flipkart can gain scale, having a potential 1 billion clients will mean a valuation much higher than the current $11 billion.

Sticking with Naspers investments, their latest one is set to list in the next 2 months - Delivery Hero set to list before summer break: sources. The company reported a 68% increase in revenue compared to last year, the type of growth we have come to expect from internet companies.

When we look back we can't imagine people not wanting new technologies like cars or computers, but with change comes fear of the unknown and pushback from some areas of society - Pessimism in Historical Perspective.

Home again, home again, jiggety-jog. Stocks down here to begin with, the Rand is stronger and that is having something of an impact. If not much, then a little. OPEC has a meeting today, right now. I couldn't care a less about that, even as a fuel user. Cartels and products that are likely to be used less in the future.

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Friday, 28 April 2017

Amazing Amazon

"I really feel that Amazon now have the size and scale for world domination. The Prime membership is genius. You have 80 million users who have logged in their credit card details. All it takes is one click to make a purchase. You can attract more subscribers with incredible content such as movies, series, gaming and live sports. They are in all the right pockets of growth. Once you are a member, the services available are amazing."

To market to market to buy a fat pig Wow, what a day to have off yesterday! The trump tax plan, earnings flowing thick and fast on the US front and then Mediclinic coming out with some good news pushing their London share price up 16%! First things first, our market had a strong finish to Wednesday finishing the day up 0.8% with the likes of Mondi and Richemont reaching their 12 month highs.

Onto the news pushing Mediclinic up 16% in London yesterday. When oil prices dropped from over $100 a barrel to $30 a barrel, government coffers in the UAE where under pressure. To help a bit with a budget shortfall, Abu Dhabi implemented a hospital co-payment of 20% on the 1 July 2016 if citizens went to private healthcare providers. The impact of the co-payment was estimated by Mediclinic management to be around AED 150m (around R540m) on revenues for the 2016/17 financial year, the final numbers for that period will be published on the 24 May. The co-payment seems to be dropped now, here is the official SENS from the company.

"Mediclinic International plc, the international private healthcare group, notes statements made on 26 April 2017 by His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces. His Highness has ordered the waiving of the 20% co-payment for holders of a Thiqa medical insurance card, when receiving treatment at the private healthcare facilities in Abu Dhabi, with immediate effect. The statements have been reported on the official news agency of the UAE (Wakalat Anba'a al Emarat). The Group awaits to receive precise details of the changes from the Health Authority Abu Dhabi ("HAAD")."

So still some uncertainty around exactly what will happen but if this does come to pass, it is good news for demand of healthcare services.

Then there is Trumps new tax plan, which looks to cut corporate tax rates from 35% to 15% along with changes to personal income tax and inheritance taxes. The plan is still light on details, particularly around what will happen with offshore earnings. Even if offshore earnings are taxed, as is the current system, the gap between tax friendly jurisdictions and the US will narrow considerably, meaning that the problem of paying a huge tax bill to bring money back to the US is not really there anymore. Lowering taxes means that the budget deficit looks to be getting bigger, the argument though is that lower taxes leads to more economic investment which leads to more economic growth and then higher tax collections. Economists are very divided on that logic, either way business leaders are very happy to be paying less tax. Even though the current tax plan is very light on details, the few political analysts I have read don't see it getting through congress. A light version, something that doesn't mess with the long term debt situation of the US could be passed by just Republicans, assuming that they are all on the same page and vote together. Getting bigger tax restructuring done will require a handful of Democrats to vote in favour of the change. In short ,expect deal making levels to go up in Washington as a bill is hammered out, time will tell how much if any change will come.

Company corner

Amazing Amazon just continues to thrive. They reported first quarter 2017 results last night which the market took kindly to. The stock is up 4% after the close, touching on $954 a share! Before we go through the many highlights, let's look at the numbers.

Revenues came in at $35.7bn which is up 22.6% yoy beating consensus of $35.3bn. Operating income breached $1bn while operating cash flow grew 53% to $17.6bn. Earnings per share smashed expectations, $1.48 vs consensus of $1.08. As you can see, price to earnings is off the charts. But Amazon is still in it's infancy. Quite incredible for a company with a market cap of $440bn.

The company reports in 3 segments. North America, International and AWS (Amazon Web Services). See the image below for the break down.

Note the huge growth in sales in it's most mature market, North America. The International segment is still fresh and new. They have invested heavily in India, here is what CEO Jeff Bezos said about the region.

"Our India team is moving fast and delivering for customers and sellers. The team has increased Prime selection by 75% since launching the program nine months ago, increased fulfillment capacity for sellers by 26% already this year, announced 18 Indian Original TV series, and just last week introduced a Fire TV Stick optimized for Indian customers with integrated voice search in English and Hindi."

When I was there a few months ago I noticed a big Amazon presence. To avoid the traffic in that place, buying online is a no brainer!

AWS is also thriving and is their biggest profit driver. Web services is a competitive industry with the likes of Microsoft and Google also getting in on the act. But Amazon have a fantastic reputation and will continue to leverage off this cash cow to grow other parts of their business.

When Amazon reports results they list a bunch of highlights for the quarter. Considering that this is for a period of 3 months, the highlights reel is always impressively long. A few that stood out for me in this report are the following:

Amazon signed a deal with the NFL as it's exclusive partner to deliver live streaming of Thursday Night Football to Amazon Prime subscribers. The race to stream live sports is on and with Amazon's resources and an estimated 80 million Prime subscribers, I think they may win it.

Launching Prime in Mexico with over 20 million products available.

Amazon Fresh (groceries) is now available in Japan, the UK and 21 Cities in the US.

Original content breaking viewership records in Japan and Germany.

I really feel that Amazon now have the size and scale for world domination. The Prime membership is genius. You have 80 million users who have logged in their credit card details. All it takes is one click to make a purchase. You can attract more subscribers with incredible content such as movies, series, gaming and live sports. They are in all the right pockets of growth. Once you are a member, the services available are amazing.

Now all they have to do is spread their wings and grow globally. India makes sense with it's untapped 1.2 billion people (of course China has Alibaba and Tencent providing similar services). At least content does not require massive logistic and infrastructure spend which allows them to easily operate in many new regions (like South Africa). But I am sure that they will target online retail wherever they go in time. The concept of buying online is relatively new but the shift is real.

There are many competitors out there with regards to online retail, content, web services and hardware. Many of them are Vestact recommended stocks. In my opinion there is enough room and enough growth off a very low base for all these businesses to thrive. With Jeff Bezos at the helm, Amazon will dominate for many years to come. Investors should hop on for the ride.

Linkfest, lap it up

Here is a look at the revenues of the largest companies in the world, to give you relative size, remember that South Africa has GDP of around $300 billion - The World's Largest 50 Companies by Revenue

I was surprised to see the production cost differences between Apple and Samsung - Samsung's Galaxy S8 Is Expensive to Build

You will find more statistics at Statista

The downtime that commuters have is turning out to be lucrative for e-tail, the busier the better! - Busy commute equals increased buying. I'm not sure how someone even operates a cellphone when they are sharing a square meter with four other people.

"On average, across all the trains, the purchase rates went up 45 percent when we went from two people per square meter to five people per square meter."

Home again, home again, jiggety-jog. Numbers also out from Cerner and Alphabet looked good, the stocks are currently both up 4% in after hour trading. Starbucks on the other hand missed what analysts were hoping for, the stock is down 4.5% in after hour trading. We will cover all these numbers in the coming days, for now enjoy the long weekend ahead!

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Tuesday, 11 April 2017

The Tesla Coil

"There is no other company that is written about as much as Tesla, perhaps Apple is right up there. It is no coincidence that both companies make beautiful things and were/are spearheaded by obsessive leaders."

To market to market to buy a fat pig Stocks in the city founded on a monster pile of gold added just over half a percent as a collective. Resources rallied over a percent and a half by the close, industrials added nearly half a percent and Banks slipped a little. Sounds like recent same old, I am afraid for the investors in financials and banks. Some of them look exceptionally cheap. Undue, or cheap for a reason? We will see what transpires with the Moody's review and then I suppose most importantly, how the new issuances by Treasury are priced and what levels of interest they attract. I suspect that we will all be following those very closely for the foreseeable future. It is funny how you expect and take stuff for granted, until something changes, that is very, very important.

A crowd called Elliot, a hedge fund crowd from the US, have taken a 4.1 odd percent stake in BHP Billiton. They have requested that BHP spin off the US petroleum business, list that separately and then fully incorporate the business in Aussie (and not in two places), in order to be more tax efficient. Elliot have made a number of demands, the company promptly turned around and said that would be too expensive and wouldn't work. Thanks for that Elliot, and then a wave. Get it? Elliot wave? BHP Billiton was one of the best performers yesterday, the stock was up three and three-quarters of a percent by the close of business in Jozi.

A stock just above that company, in terms of the day performance, was Mediclinic. There was news released by the company, simply titled Swiss regulatory update. It is more than a little complicated, I would urge you to read it from top to bottom. In short and to try and be as brief as possible, the canton of Zurich (the district) parliament voted not to institute a levy on a segment of private healthcare patients.

That is good news for Mediclinic's business in Switzerland, it means that their more marginal users (sensitive to price) will not pay the levy (along with the wealthier ones, who pay top dollar for private healthcare). At least for now. The Hirslanden CEO says the following about the authorities, who "recognise that ongoing dialogue and engagement with the relevant public authorities is key to ensuring that we can continue to deliver high-quality, cost-efficient, healthcare to our patients." I guess this differs on a canton by canton basis, they (cantons) are member states of the country. And guess what? Zurich has the highest population density amongst the 26 cantons of Switzerland, Hirslanden has two hospitals in Zurich. The next big one would be Bern (four hospitals), and then Vaud (where Lausanne is), with two hospitals, those are the next most populous regions of Switzerland.

We view this as a positive for their biggest business. We know that the share price has done badly, recently. Since their listing in London, where Mediclinic reversed into Al Noor, things have looked scratchy in the UK and that has impacted the Pound share price of Mediclinic. It should mean that the revenues and profits from their "offshore" (not from the UK) businesses should be good. Problems in the UAE with the integration of the two businesses and with the pay in (another state medical aid slippage in healthcare benefits) settling in the coming year or so, we should see some normalisation. I expect the business to do deals where they see fit, backed by an anchor shareholder in Remgro. We remain patient (no pun intended).

Across the oceans and deep blue seas, stocks in New York, New York settled lower from their best point, equally higher from their worst point. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added less than two whole points, up 0.01 percent on the session. Snooze and sleep another 7 (or is it 9?) minutes ..... The broader market S&P 500 added a mere 0.07 percent, whilst the nerds of NASDAQ added 0.05 percent by the time the closing bell rang. At one stage stocks were up half a percent, at another stage they were down nearly one quarter of a percent. The flat closing masks the intraday moves, the evidence lies in the VIX, which was up 9 percent on the session to a little over 14, the highest levels since early December. That tells you something, at least.

There was much chatter about the two Wells Fargo execs that have to hand back some serious tom, a 113 page internal report released by the company names some very high profile people who should account to the owners of the business (the shareholders) and broader society and most especially to their customers. Without the customers, there is no business whatsoever. John Stumpf, who was heading the business at the time and Carrie Tolstedt, head of the retail business were in the cross hairs of this report.

The upshot of it all is that there are cancelled options and clawbacks to the tune of 47 million Dollars for Tolstedt and 28 million Dollars for Stumpf. Tolstedt was found to have hidden the size and scale of the "cross selling", Stumpf once called her the best banker in America. The independent board members have launched a scathing attack on the two, too little too late is the tarnished image of the bank, even though the scale of the abuse is relatively small in monetary standards, (an apple may not be a cart) the bad aftertaste will linger for some time.

I suppose the message is to send a solid warning to the custodians of shareholder capital, the independent board will act, and hopefully harshly in this situation. I wouldn't feel too sorry for either Stumpf or Tolstedt, they are still "well off". A quiet spot down in the Caribbean is perhaps the perfect place to go for a few years. It is like she has been removed from Wells Fargo history, sorry, the profile you are looking for has been fired. We have also cancelled 47 million Dollars of options she had pending. Have a nice day.

Company corner

And then a whole lot of "stuff" around Tesla. Again. The company that attracts an enormous amount of attention, warranted I think. There is no other company that is written about as much as Tesla, perhaps Apple is right up there. It is no coincidence that both companies make beautiful things and were/are spearheaded by obsessive leaders. The company, thirteen years old, now has a bigger market capitalisation than General Motors. Elon Musk, has in less than two decades shaken up the whole motoring world. He has made them all push for electric and driverless systems. My best guess is that he has succeeded and that he has set something in motion. Something big in the way that we transport ourselves across the length and breadth of the planet, and even beyond in his case (and Jeff Bezos), to Mars and beyond.

Tesla's competitors think this is crazy, their valuation, based on the fact that the company does not make money. That is right, you read that correctly. The company is expected by some counts to be cash flow positive next year. They still produce only 100 thousand vehicles this year, all luxury ones, really. The Model 3 is the "next big thing" and may well turn out to be the catalyst for something bigger. Whilst I agree with the observations in this article - Tesla's 'crazy' climb to America's most valuable car company, there are many things about Musk and most importantly, the customers of Tesla that people have not learned.

For every bullish article about Tesla, there are almost three to four negative ones. That is what I have found. People cannot come to terms with the valuation that the market is affording the company. It is a company that investors and most importantly, customers, do not want to miss out on. If the customer can get their hands on a Tesla, they surely will. The company cannot manufacture these fast enough. There is a pretty cool SeekingAlpha piece on Tesla - 4 Myths And 4 Little-Known Facts About Tesla. A *nice* read, with obvious bias. We continue to stay long, it is a small interest investment at the fringes of the portfolios.

Linkfest, lap it up

Cannot trust a driverless taxi? You are not alone. Which is why these drivers think that their job is safe for now - Uber Drivers Aren't Worried About Self-Driving Cars - Yet.

The self driving car revolution (another one) is much closer than many people think - Quarter of Miles Traveled in the U.S. by 2030 Seen as Driverless. The big number from the report is how much money the average person will save a year, it is estimated that the average person in Chicago will save $7 000 a year. With numbers like that people will move to self driving cars quickly. So who is right, the drivers or the manufacturers? The customers will dictate.

Thanks to the frackers, oil prices have come down. Will it remain at these levels though? - Oil surplus or scarcity? Shale makes it even harder to predict. As a consumer I hope the price movements are to the down side.

Always nice to see Jozi on the list, we punch above our weight, thanks to the Visual Capitalist for this wonderful bunch of drawings. The stock market here is the 17th biggest in the world. Bigger than Brazil, bigger than Spain. Bigger than Taiwan. What is most surprising is that Frankfurt (431 years old) and Bombay have the two biggest amounts of listings and companies available. They are possibly of a very low quality. The 20 Largest Stock Exchanges in the World.

Home again, home again, jiggety-jog. Paul clocked 1000 days of continuous running over the weekend. That is at least one mile (he averages closer to 15km) a day for the last 1000 days plus. This is an incredible achievement, keep it up. Next stop, 10 thousand. Stocks have started mixed to better on this side.

Sent to you by Sasha, Byron and Michael on behalf of team Vestact.

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Wednesday, 22 February 2017

As Good As Your Last Deal

"A poor January in Abu Dhabi, those are the Al Noor assets, which are going to be rebranded in due course, they will take a 140 million AED, or 500 million Rand charge in the rebranding process, a non cash event. Expectations are for full year revenues from the middle east operations to be 3 to 3.2 billion AED or nearly 11.5 billion Rand at the top end of the range, EBITDA margins of 10 to 11 percent."

To market to market to buy a fat pig That was about the busiest day in terms of news-flow that I have seen on the local exchange in a long, long time. There were results from Anglo American, BHP Billiton, Shoprite-Checkers, Imperial and then there were trading updates from the likes of Tiger Brands and Mediclinic. As well as Pioneer Foods. We will do our best to cover the ones that are most relevant to our clients, both today and in the coming days. Of course there are Discovery results tomorrow. There are rumours swirling that Telkom could make a go for Cell C, remembering that the shareholders from Saudi, Oger, may well be getting really tired after all these years in what is a saturated market from a subscriber point of view.

Session end in the city founded on gold, stocks managed a meagre 0.05 percent gain. Resources were nearly half a percent to the good. Financials were down around one-quarter of a percent, I am guessing that the budget speech will be a big day for all South Africans, it is widely expected that there will be tax hikes across the board. Revenue may seemingly be easy to "get" but has a massive knock on effect on the economy, with lower confidence leading to lower spend. On the Twitter thingie, I found a graph via Kevin Lings and Stanlib, I think that this is pretty self explanatory and tells you that any sort of confidence shift could lead to a big boost in the economy:

Makes you think, doesn't it? And makes you wonder whether or not these funds would be smartly deployed. Confidence is key to almost everything. Byron said on the box this morning, "confidence is the cheapest form of stimulus". Makes sense. If you want to read a *nice* view of the mining stocks currently, here goes - Mining Companies Are Back in the Black.

Another day for Wall Street where the confidence continues to flow, stocks all reaching another new bunch of highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added nearly six-tenths of a percent, the S&P 500 added exactly that. The nerds of NASDAQ added just shy of half a percent by the time all was said and done. Walmart had numbers that at face value looked average, and the guidance was average. What people liked about the results was that Walmart online sales grew quite quickly, accounting for 7.8 percent of all online sales in the US, second to Amazon, which is at 33 percent. Those online sales for Walmart grew by 29 percent, we have always maintained that they will be able to compete in this way. For the likes of Macy's, the department store, is that going to be easy? Are they going to be able to differentiate? By session end Walmart had tacked on three percent.

Other big news was Carl Icahn taking a stake in Bristol-Myers Squibb. Must be grossly undervalued you know, perhaps a letter to the board is in order. Ha ha. And perhaps make it known and very public to everyone, that is a great style and it works. Remember that public spat between Icahn and Ackman around Herbalife, looks like Icahn is winning that one. See an old one - Waiters At New York City's Restaurants Know Never To Seat Bill Ackman Next To Carl Icahn. Egos and investing, it normally doesn't go well.

Company corner

Mediclinic had a trading update yesterday, their results are not until May, this was more of a look at their Middle East business. The first line is OK - "During the year we have seen a good trading performance from our two largest platforms in Switzerland and Southern Africa in line with full year expectations for the full year 2016/17."

And then the next seven paragraphs point out how "things" in the Middle East are sucking wind. A reminder, from the last set of numbers - Mediclinic half year numbers - not going so well in UAE: "Switzerland stands head and shoulders above them all, as you would imagine, being a 51.8 percent contributor and saw good growth (currency translations - yes) of 18 percent. The South African business contributed 34 percent to EBIDTA and the Middle East business was the balance, 15.45 percent."

A poor January in Abu Dhabi, those are the Al Noor assets, which are going to be rebranded in due course, they will take a 140 million AED, or 500 million Rand charge in the rebranding process, a non cash event. Expectations are for full year revenues from the middle east operations to be 3 to 3.2 billion AED or nearly 11.5 billion Rand at the top end of the range, EBITDA margins of 10 to 11 percent. Perhaps we should change those to Pound Sterling, of course that is the currency that they (Mediclinic) now report in. 650 to 700 million Pounds revenue. 65 to 77 million Pounds EBITDA, from their Middle East operations. Which is more than double at the half year stage (306 million revenues at H1, 34 million EBIDTA at H1).

I suspect that whilst integration is not going according to plan, government budgets under pressure (and the subsequent raising of the co-payments by the national health provider in the UAE) is not something Mediclinic can help in any way. The oil price has been rallying and I suspect that will definitely help matters. I think that the market possibly overreacted, sending the Mediclinic share price down nearly 6 percent in London and 4.6 percent here.

The market expects better, the stock trades at an elevated level for the stodgy numbers that they have delivered thus far, and it has been punished accordingly. It happens. The business is a really good one, with a great anchor shareholder that will definitely help if other opportunities come along for a deal. They need to "bed" (excuse the pun) down the Middle East, the reason for the London listing remember was access to cheaper capital, hence the acquiring of Al Noor for that purpose. We like the business, like the trends that will continue to appear for healthcare. Be patient, acquire on weakness will continue to be the message.

The other business of interest to us here at Vestact that had a trading statement, was Tiger Brands. I had oats this morning, I know it is not all Banting, sorry about that you purist cave people. I should have had wooly mammoth and washed it down with Yak milk, something like that, right? At face value the trading update may have looked weird, the company has a September year end, so their interim numbers would be after March. This trading update coincided with the AGM though, and it is not unusual for a business to give an update.

Turnover for the four months to end January, relative to the prior year, increased by 12 percent. One would argue in an economy where moral is a little low as a result of economic activity being average at best, this is a fair result. Exports and their international business were impacted by (drum roll), the strong Rand, which makes for a good change. The company has decided to exit their East African Haco business, selling their half (plus one) to their partner. This comes on top of their sale in Ethiopia. As they point out, with the sale of Taco, it is not really material.

Things locally are still tough out there: "The trading environment remains difficult. The focus will continue to be on optimising margins without sacrificing market share. This will be achieved through targeted investment in marketing and route to market activities, as well as through ongoing cost-saving initiatives."

Expect results on the 25th of May. Good day that, my wedding anniversary, I will be married for a decade and a half, that is a good achievement, right? Yes. As Charlie Munger always says, take the very best person who will have you! Ha ha. The stock lost around 0.9 percent on the day, hardly here or there by the end I guess. We remain holders and accumulators of Tiger Brands, excellent enduring brands. And in case you hadn't noticed, food is more addictive than anything else.

Linkfest, lap it up

Facebook have lately been called copycats of Snapchat. They have been on many of their platforms trying to counteract the prominence of Snapchat. Here is some more news - WhatsApp Launches Snapchat-Like Status Feature. We remain long Facebook.

Wow. Just when you thought there was no more chance of a straw changing shape or size or suction - McDonald's Just Innovated The Hell Out Of Straws. Is that really what straw stands for? Suction Tube for Reverse Axial Withdrawal?

There are some handy tips in here, also via PC Mag - 8 Uses for Your Old Smartphone. For people who use some applications a lot, freeing up some "screen time" for a dedicated Skype screen is probably the best idea.

You can give up folks, if you were thinking about this. Air Force doctor wins NASA "Space Poop Challenge". 15 thousand bucks for the winner! Seems too little to solve a complicated problem?

No ways! Seeing is believing. Two links essentially about the same thing. The Smartphone Platform War Is Over, and the associated graph, courtesy of Statista. This article (with associated graph from Statista too) tells you all you need to know about what used to be - BlackBerry's fall from grace, in one chart.

Home again, home again, jiggety-jog. Chinese stocks are up, Hong Kong more than Shanghai. Japanese stocks are completely flat.

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