"There is also the small matter of the resolution of the next amount of funds to be freed in order for the Greeks to continue to bungle through their current economic malaise. I object to people who suggest that they have not done enough, I suspect that they can do a lot more to solve the problems around too much state in the economy rather than less. For ordinary citizens however, the pain is clear."
What did the fox say? At 11 our market was down 600 odd points, which is comfortably over a percent. It was a case of: "not another day like yesterday". Which of course is the opposite of Groundhog Day, which (eventually) you want to live over and over again. If you could have that perfect day in the perfect place over and over again, what would be your Groundhog day? Anyhow, the worse turned into better, the market at that point turned and ended comfortably in the green for the day, up two-tenths of a percent. Resources led the charge, the iron ore price has bounced sharply, nearly at 60 Dollars a ton.
There is also the small matter of the resolution of the next amount of funds to be freed in order for the Greeks to continue to bungle through their current economic malaise. I object to people who suggest that they have not done enough, I suspect that they can do a lot more to solve the problems around too much state in the economy rather than less. For ordinary citizens however, the pain is clear. Perhaps there are too many concessions on the part of ordinary citizens relative to their contributions over time. Do yourself a favour, if you are really interested, read the open letter to Le Monde translated to English, from Alexis Tsipras, the Prime Minister of Greece, via the official website: Europe at crossroads.
Obviously there is lots of grandstanding, I think all Tsipras is asking for is less harsh primary surplus (collections versus payments out before interest payments) targets. In his mind this would do the following: "Doing so requires a mutually beneficial agreement that will set realistic goals regarding surpluses, while also reinstating an agenda of growth and investment. A final solution to the Greek problem is now more mature and more necessary than ever. Such an agreement will also spell the end of the European economic crisis that began 7 years ago, by putting an end to the cycle of uncertainty in the Eurozone."
Perhaps there is a case to be made for taking such an awful situation and apply more than just a few years outlook, apply something longer, ten years and we will check back every six months just to make sure that you are on the right track, OK? And it is time to meet these obligations in this fashion according to a calendar. I suspect that even though all parties are far apart, they will meet some middle ground in the coming two days. Why then? Two days ahead of an IMF repayment, that is due Friday. The FT has collated all the payments due in a Greek debt tracker, which shows that this year alone 23.8 billion Euros is due, the good news is that 13.7 billion Euros of obligations have been met already. It looks like the summer is going to be hot, from a finances point of view! Today brings about another set of talks and before there are signatures, I am guessing we will all hear about it.
Why do you buy a new car? Or an even better question, when in the economic cycle do you buy a car? Don't think about it too hard. I guess when financing is cheap and more importantly when you are sure that you are going to have the income to support the payments on the motor vehicle. And it would be fair to say that the higher the number of motor vehicle sales, the better the overall economy is doing? I am pretty sure that there is a strong link between consumer confidence and buying of new motor vehicles.
Where is this going? In the US yesterday all the motor manufacturers released their monthly numbers, those are then translated forward to an annual run rate. And that annual run rate is around 17.8 million units. I beg your pardon, not run rate, rather SAAR, which is an acronym for Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Mostly driven by light trucks we are led to believe. I am not too sure about you, I prefer economic data of this sort. Whether one should buy a new car or not, the economic argument for not doing it is strong, equally a case can be made for not ever going on holiday and squirrelling every penny.
Good news is good news, today on the markets front there is the precursor to non-farm payrolls data, the ADP employment data. The ADP research institute, which is the driver of the report, is part Moody's analytics and then part ADP which is a payroll processing company. Of course having access to payroll data of 24 million Americans, representing 411 thousand businesses (clients of ADP) give this report real data in order to make predictions about the entire workforce which represents around 157 million active workers in the civilian labor force, as per the BLS: Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted.
At the end of the session in New York, stocks had done a down and up and then down again. After starting two-thirds worse for the session there was an about turn, briefly stocks were in the green, up one third of a percent in the early afternoon, sinking later to end down a little over one-tenth of a percent. What? This is not the market report, it is not the weather report either. For all you folks at the coast, we got a short sprinkle this morning, which is a big deal in Joburg, OK? We do not get rain during winter, Joburg is dry and dusty during that time.
Linkfest, lap it up
In general, things are getting better on the planet not worse. Here is another figure which shows it - U.N. Reports About 200 Million Fewer Hungry People Than in 1990.
Speaking of our planet, us humans now have our own flying saucer - NASA Prepares 'Flying Saucer' for Take Off. Do you think we will get to the point where a significant number of people will live on other planets? In my mind it would be cheaper and easier to move into the water before we move to space.
It is clear that data is the future for mobile network operators, so this is a move from Vodacom to increase the data usage on its network. The big upside though is that more people can now afford to buy and use smartphones which can be a substitute for a computer for some functions. Not having internet is a big disadvantage to the poor (40% of the globe have never been on!), smartphones can help level the playing field. Profit motive in this case is helping society move forward - Vodacom launches R799 smartphone
Getting gains like this in such a short period of time shows market inefficiencies. I think it comes down to having more information than the man standing next to you, then once you have bought the art you move to a market with more informed buyers - Art Flippers Target Masterpieces as French Painting Gains 220%. Maybe given the limited liquidity and big swings in prices, a 220% profit is a fair reflection of the risk taken on?
I absolutely love this: A 99-Year-Old Wall Street Veteran Reveals the Secrets of Her Success. The one part, where the 99 year old money manager had her 75 year old client 100 percent invested in US Treasuries (and how the client was fine with that) is at the heart of the story, each individual has different needs and requirements.
And they all lived happily ever after. We have started lower here, a little mixed actually, financials, retailers and the like lower. Sep Blatter resigned, you knew that already. The question is, who will replace him and will they have the stomach to do a giant cleanup. Sigh. ADP, like I mentioned earlier and Greece, those are on the radar today!
Sent to you by the Vestacters, Sasha, Michael, Byron and Paul.
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