Monday 1 June 2015

Made in Italy



"What made me stand up was not the growing European debt markets, rather the fact that 95 percent of Italian companies employed 9 people or less (there must be a law for companies with 10 people, possibly), in manufacturing it is 82 percent of all companies. In other words, 4 out of 5 companies in Italian manufacturing employ less than 9 people. Talk about a tight knit bunch of people, talk about small volumes and high quality, Europe certainly has all those things"




Golden eggs, magic beans, cinders and hair, giants and Englishmen, red hooded girls beware Comrades yesterday, if you ran, let me know how it went, we are interested in our people. One record was set yesterday, if was the first time in history that two brothers have won the race. Gift Kelehe's brother Andrew won the down run in 2001, yesterday his brother added to his three gold medals with the winners medal. Gift Kelehe is a police man in Rustenburg in his normal every day life, not a professional sportsman, which is another reason to celebrate his awesome success, waking up at 4 each and every morning to train hard.

The woman's race was won by Caroline Wostmann, who also won Oceans, the first time this has been done by a South African since 1998, Elena Nurgalieva has done this twice! Wostmann is from Jozi, she lectures at Wits, she beat her husband by more than two hours. In fairness to her husband, Wostmann nearly broke the womans record. What makes her remarkable, relative to the mens winner is that she started running not so long ago. She came 24th overall. Yowsers. Good work. Investing is like an ultra marathon, although normally you feel stronger the longer you go into the proverbial race, investing that is. Running is as addictive as investing, at least for me. Both investing and training for a big event requires an enormous amount of endurance and perseverance, as well as "training". They are equally hard, they still require an enormous amount of discipline.

So why did the market go down (again) on Friday? I saw a note that suggested that this was the 9th trading session in a row that the market was down here in Jozi, not a very good end to the month of May. The Dollar has been stronger as rates are expected to rise soon, US GDP was soft on Friday however. This was one of the few hiccups since the financial crisis, which is also called the Great Recession (there was nothing Great about it), or the global financial crisis, a pretty big speed bump. Not as bad as expected, still soft enough to suggest that the Fed are going to hold off on raising rates any time soon. Meaning the Dollar is weaker for now.

Equally the Dollar has been strengthening for a while now, hence the equity market coming under a little pressure. Some still refer to the present situation as a spot of worry with a dash of uncertainty. It sounds like it is always like that, the Greek cash crunch, the Chinese growth outlook, when is the Fed going to raise rates, these are all answers that we do not know. Stay long and stay patient, there are many tough periods along the way when investing.




This article from the WSJ represents the shift in monetary policy, and how the divergent paths have meant that companies rush to different territories to raise money at cheaper rates. It is only a matter of time before the Fed raises rates, the ECB are holding for now. So, if you can raise money at cheaper rates to buy cheaper businesses in Europe, then that is where companies are going to look to raise more and more debt. Subscription only, you may be able to wangle some free articles if you sign up: Europe's Economies Must Match Capital Market Progress.

What made me stand up was not the growing European debt markets, rather the fact that 95 percent of Italian companies employed 9 people or less (there must be a law for companies with 10 people, possibly), in manufacturing it is 82 percent of all companies. In other words, 4 out of 5 companies in Italian manufacturing employ less than 9 people. Talk about a tight knit bunch of people, talk about small volumes and high quality, Europe certainly has all those things. I do not know the laws, surely this could be Private Equity heaven? Perhaps someone could tell me otherwise, old family businesses owned by individuals for years and years, passed down to the next generation. What happens if the next generation cares less for owning a manufacturing business and would rather be a professional sitting in an air-conditioned office?

In the same way that the newer developed world has laws that keep up with the times, the olde worlde has strange old laws that evolved with the "old known" to borrow a Rumsfeldian: Britain's 180-year-old laws about horses, pigs, and cows could block driverless cars. If you think about it, London is over 2000 years old, laws have been evolving since then, the gold rush of 1849 made San Francisco what it is today. The city is new. The laws of California are new and can adapt to technology like driverless cars. That is the only point I am making. There is a reason why there are so many big businesses in the US and so many family owned businesses in Europe.




Linkfest, lap it up

Researchers found the evidence of early treatment so overwhelming that they cut the study short as to allow all participants to get the medication early - Breakthrough HIV study could change course of treatment for millions. "The researchers were surprised to find that the risk of developing serious illness or death was reduced by more than half -- 53 percent -- in the early treatment group."

I think that this is a great article. It highlights some big areas where we can be mislead when it comes to what we eat. There are many conflicting "scientific studies" of what works. The truth is that trying to monitor hundreds of people on exactly what they are eating (we even lie to ourselves about what we eat) over the long run is basically impossible. The same scientific magic used in the chocolate study can be used when it comes to economic and financial data, so be careful when you read about what science has uncovered recently - I Fooled Millions Into Thinking Chocolate Helps Weight Loss. Here's How.

No one can time the markets and luck does play a role in your overall returns but spending less than you earn and having regular investments still gives a good return - The Role of Luck in Your Portfolio. The key to long term returns is to continue buying even after markets drop.

Kit, come to me. That was Michael Knight, when the Hoff was cool. As far as I am concerned (SABC reruns aside), the only Hoff cool nowadays is Steinhoff. We are getting distracted. This was bound to happen: Man Gets $120 Ticket for Using Apple Watch While Driving

Why is Japan seemingly at the cutting edge of robotics? Their labour force is smaller and older. That is why. Japan Unleashes a Robot Revolution. Interesting how labour jobs, many of them, are being replaced with technology, the lesson is to keep up your standards.

What? I could not believe this headline when I read it: Nobody Knows If This $18,000 Wine Is Any Good. Believe it or not, you can actually buy a bottle online: 1945 Baron Philippe de Rothschild Chateau Mouton Rothschild. Why? Why pay 1500 Dollars for a glass of wine? Is it really THAT MUCH better? On the same website, it features top wines around the world, for a specific price, South Africa clocks the first three in the 20 Dollar category: The Top 10 Best Value Wines in the World, as well as places 2nd and 3rd in the category 40 Dollars.

Have you ever wondered this? Why do astronauts need to shower in space? More importantly, and the answer is given on Quora by a man that actually lived in the International Space Station, how do you do it?

The future of farming, closer to the source? Farmers, what do you think, fancy moving to the city? Farming in the Sky.

Goodbye Coal, Hello Solar. Too soon? Perhaps. Solar Shines as Sellers Sometimes Pay Buyers to Use Power. Storage is the next step, Tesla is working on that.




And they all lived happily ever after. I saw a note from the folks over at Barclays on the Platinum price which was trading at the largest discount to the spot Gold price. Of course the gold price is getting a lift as a result of a delayed rate cut, which flowed through to Dollar weakness. Shanghai stocks were on another tear, European manufacturing PMI from Italy and France looked like a beat, not from Germany and the UK. South African manufacturing PMI was a beat. Of course nobody cares about any of this, Greece has missed their self imposed deadline for coming to a deal with the rest of Europe. No deal continues to equal uncertainty. Which is not good for equity markets.




Sent to you by the Vestacters, Sasha, Michael, Byron and Paul.

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